I just came across an interesting perspective from Hayes on how geopolitics can influence Fed decisions. According to his analysis, every time the U.S. engages in major military actions, the Fed tends to loosen policy—either by cutting interest rates or increasing money supply to fund those operations.

Hayes cites several historical episodes to support his argument: the Gulf War in 1990, the post-9/11 era, and the surge in Afghanistan in 2009—all followed by aggressive monetary easing. He suggests this pattern is likely to repeat if tensions with Iran continue to escalate.

Last week, Israel and the U.S. carried out airstrikes on Iran, and Trump has promised to keep up the momentum. If these geopolitical developments become more serious, Hayes believes the Fed will be forced to 'lower prices and increase the money supply' to support those efforts. This isn’t empty speculation—there’s a clear historical thread showing this pattern.

For the crypto market, this means one thing: more liquidity. If the Fed really starts printing money or cutting rates, risk appetite usually increases, and digital assets like Bitcoin tend to benefit. Bitcoin is currently trading around $67K, down 1.68% in the last 24 hours, but if Hayes’ storyline plays out, momentum could shift.

What to watch now is the official communication from the Fed. Any signals about new liquidity programs or rate cuts will be the main triggers for price movements. The crypto market is very sensitive to such policy signals—traders can move quickly if there’s anticipation of injections of liquidity.

Hayes also suggests tools like Quantitative Easing Purchases as possible steps the Fed might take, indicating how policymakers could respond if macro pressures intensify. An interesting aspect is how this dynamic spills over into crypto—not just about price, but about liquidity structures and how central banks shape the game.

Of course, there’s no guarantee prices will move in any particular direction. But if we follow Hayes’ logic and the historical examples he cites, there’s a strong case that geopolitics and macro policies will continue to be major drivers for Bitcoin and other digital assets in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, keep an eye on what the Fed will say next.