Market Outlook

Bitcoin may once again dip below 65200
Bitcoin started declining this morning, maintaining a downward trend until 65700, where a small rebound occurred
Many analysts are extremely bearish, believing it will break below now; I still believe it will not break immediately
There are two scenarios for a breakdown: one is a slight dip below, meaning a slight drop below 60,000 followed by a V-shaped rebound; the other is a complete break of the range, directly reaching the so-called bottom
Reaching the bottom directly in early April seems unlikely to me, as bottoms in previous bear markets typically appear in Q4
A slight dip below 60,000 cannot be completely ruled out
Although the order book shows very dense buy orders above 60,000, which is quite different from the previous oscillation range (90,000 range), the appearance of war news has caused US stocks to decline continuously. Bitcoin has not even tested the previous low of 63,000, which is a positive sign
After a minor break below 66,800 on a smaller timeframe, I am waiting for another sweep down to 65,200, but if it stabilizes again above 66,800, then 65,700 could be a retracement low
However, I will continue to respect the impact of news. I believe that if negative news reappears, the 65,200-63,000 range could be touched
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