Shenwan Hongyuan: One month after the US-Iran conflict, how is the current valuation of major asset classes? The PE percentile of the Shanghai Composite Index is at 85.9% historically.

If you’re trading stocks, look at Jinqilin’s analyst reports—authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive. Help you uncover high-potential themes and opportunities!

Source: Shenwan Hongyuan Strategy

Global Capital Market Review: This week (20260320-20260327), ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to push up oil prices. In the U.S., economic data showed that consumer confidence was hit, inflation expectations rose, the risk of stagflation intensified, and expectations for rate cuts were postponed. 1) In fixed income, the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield rose marginally by 5 BP to 4.44%, and the U.S. Dollar Index increased by 0.67%; 2) In equities, this week the Korean market saw a relatively large decline in stock prices, and China’s A-share index fell across the board except for the CSI Convertible Bond Index; 3) In commodities, gold fell by 1.72%, while geopolitical risk heating up drove crude oil up by 2.12%.

A month after the conflict between the U.S. and Israel and the conflict involving Iran occurred, how are the current sentiment and value-for-money indicators for major asset classes? 1) In the short term, technical indicators: U.S. stocks reflect relatively bearish sentiment. As of March 27, 2026, the U.S. stock fear index recorded 10.22, compared with about 4 on April 7, 2025 and May 11, 2022. The AAII retail investor sentiment index was 49.79% on 20260326, compared with the 25.3% high before the Middle East conflict on 20260227; compared with 15.5% lower during the tariff period in April 2025, it is basically in line with the U.S. stock low in May 2022. 2) In implied volatility: gold, aluminum, and U.S. stock volatility are at absolute high levels; crude oil and copper volatility are at relatively high levels; while A-share volatility is at a neutral level. The implied volatility of Shanghai gold, Shanghai copper, Shanghai aluminum, and crude oil are all at historical percentile ranks of 98.6%, 87.7%, 99.3%, and 69.6%, respectively. For A-shares, the implied volatility of CSI 300 and CSI 1000 is at historical percentile ranks of 49.7% and 83.8%, respectively; for U.S. stocks, the implied volatility of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 index is at historical percentile ranks of 96.2% and 90.9%, respectively. Regardless of A-shares or U.S. stocks, the implied volatility across option strikes for this week increased overall compared with last week. Meanwhile, regarding option open interest: as of 2026/3/27, open interest in April-expiring call options on CSI 300 in the 4800-5000 point range declined month-over-month, indicating that bullish sentiment weakened somewhat. 3) In the medium-term value-for-money: risk assets overall are slightly neutral, and there is still some distance from the risk-asset lows of April 2025 and 2022. From the equity market P/E ratio percentile perspective, the valuation percentile of the Shanghai Composite is lower than Korea’s KOSPI200 (91.3%) and France’s CAC40 (93.2%), exceeds the S&P 500 (80.8%), and is at 89.8% over the past 10 years; but the absolute valuation level is still significantly lower than major developed markets such as the U.S., Japan, and Europe. From the ERP perspective, the ERP percentile ranks of Brazil’s São Paulo, CSI 300, and the Shanghai Composite are still relatively high. From the perspective of equity-vs-bond value-for-money, China’s equity market still has relatively better allocation value compared with the global market. In terms of risk-adjusted return percentile ranks, U.S. stocks have been adjusted more sufficiently. As of 2026/3/27, the risk-adjusted return percentile rank of the S&P 500 fell to 6%, and the risk-adjusted return percentile rank of Nasdaq fell from 9% to 5%; the risk-adjusted return percentile rank of CSI 300 rose from 39% to 42%; and the risk-adjusted return percentile rank of the commodity GSCI composite index has continued to stay at the 85% percentile rank.

Tracking Global Fund Flows: As of 2026/03/25, foreign capital continued to flow into China’s equity market, while domestic capital overall flowed out. For overseas active and passive funds: overseas active funds saw outflows of $180 million over the past week, while overseas passive funds saw inflows of $1.61 billion over the past week. For domestic and foreign capital: foreign capital flowed into $1.43 billion over the past week, while domestic capital flowed out $680 million. Over the past week, global funds saw a significant outflow from money market funds. In fixed income funds, U.S. fixed income funds saw a clear inflow, with $5.1 billion in inflows this week. In equity funds, U.S. stock markets saw a large outflow of $27.02 billion. In terms of relative fund flows, in the most recent week, China’s equity funds saw a notably larger relative outflow. At the industry level, U.S. stock funds saw large inflows into financials, utilities, and healthcare, while technology and industrials experienced relatively large outflows. In China’s equity market, funds flowed into technology and healthcare. In commodities, among overseas-listed commodity ETFs this week, both copper and gold marginally received positive inflows, with copper showing stronger resilience. Crude oil and agricultural products continued last week’s trend of inflows. Global Asset Risk Sentiment Indicators: For U.S. stocks, at the index level, the S&P 500 is below the 20-day moving average, and the put-to-call ratio this week is unchanged compared with last week. Global Economic Data: U.S. inflation expectations have fallen. China’s recovery signals are waiting for further confirmation. Federal Reserve rate cut expectations: as of 2026/3/28, the Fed’s year-ahead rate cut expectations rose slightly. Key economic indicators next week: China’s March manufacturing PMI and the U.S. March employment data.

Risk Warning: Short-term fluctuations in asset prices may not represent long-term trends; a deep recession in the European and U.S. economies or outcomes worse than expected; major policy direction changes in the U.S. during Trump’s term in office.

		Sina Statement: This message is a repost from Sina’s partner media. Sina.com publishes this article for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean it agrees with or verifies the views or descriptions in this article. The article content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors act on this at their own risk.

A large volume of information and precise analysis—on the Sina Finance app

责任编辑：常福强