I just noticed something that many are probably overlooking. México is positioning itself strategically at a critical moment for its economy. Next week, México and the United States will begin bilateral talks to review USMCA, the trade agreement they've maintained with Canadá for over three decades. But here’s the interesting part: México enters this meeting with considerable bargaining power.

Marcelo Ebrard, Secretary of Economy, has made it clear that México is the main exporter to the United States. The numbers support this. In January, México accounted for 16.6% of the total US trade, surpassing the 15.6% it held in 2025. This is significant because it happens just as Trump is using tariffs as a coercive tool against other countries. Essentially, México has become the strategic bargaining chip, the highest-value coin on the North American trade board.

Meanwhile, China continues to lose ground. It went from 7.4% of US trade in 2025 to 6.6% in January. Taiwan rose to 6.0%, Vietnam to 4.7%. But here’s the key data that few highlight: these Asian countries collectively represent 45.7% of total US trade. Competition remains fierce.

Canada recorded an 11.8% share, clearly lagging behind México. The gap is widening. This is because the United States has made a clear geopolitical decision: strengthen regional integration to counterbalance Asia’s influence.

But not everything is smooth sailing. Just before these negotiations, the United States announced new investigations under Section 301, including issues of overcapacity, overproduction, and pricing of pharmaceutical products. Ebrard responded confidently, saying that 85% of México’s trade with the United States is not subject to Section 301 and remains tariff-free. Essentially, he assured there’s no cause for concern.

The initial topics México and the United States will review are three: reducing dependence on Asian inputs, rules of origin, and supply chain security. This reflects a clear strategy from Washington.

Meanwhile, México is moving its diplomatic pieces. A delegation of Mexican entrepreneurs will visit Canadá from May 7 to 9 to discuss the future of USMCA. Additionally, México will push for tariff reductions on steel and aluminum.

What’s fascinating is that there is consensus both within the Mexican government and the business community: conditions will improve for México. In the United States, most business leaders also advocate for maintaining and strengthening the agreement. There seems to be mutual understanding of the importance of regional integration.

Ultimately, México’s economic destiny depends on strengthening USMCA. And North America’s future largely depends on how México negotiates in this pivotal meeting. The data favors México; its position as the United States’ main trading partner is its strongest bargaining chip. But everything will depend on how well it plays its cards in the coming weeks. We’ll see how this unfolds.