Chili's owner could see shares rise on strong sales, Key Banc says

Casual restaurant chain company Brinker International is likely to get a boost from strong sales at one of its brands, especially as it introduces new offerings to its diners, according to Key Banc. The bank upgraded the Chili’s owner to overweight from sector weight. It has a $177 price target on shares, implying 23% upside from Wednesday’s close. “We believe Chili’s strong underlying sales momentum will continue through the end of FY26 and into FY27, while the introduction of FY27 guidance and an upcoming investor day later this year could serve as positive catalysts,” analyst Christopher Carril said Wednesday in a note to clients. KeyBanc expects Chili’s sales to pick up as it rolls out a new menu featuring a line-up of chicken sandwiches in April. The debut will be supported by marketing, and will benefit from improvements the restaurant chain has made. Chili’s service “has seen substantial investment and improvement in recent years,” Carril wrote. The analyst added that margin upside potential and modest unit growth are also likely to provide a tailwind for multiple expansion. “Our analysis in this report comparing Chili’s [average unit volume] and margin upside potential to best-in-class peers suggests meaningful upside to today’s levels, and we expect this to be a key focus topic at this fall’s investor event.” Carril wrote. Brinker shares currently trade below recent historical and peer averages, meaning investors would be wise to scoop them up, per Key Banc. Key Banc’s call falls in line with consensus on the Street. Of the 24 analysts covering Brinker, 18 have a buy or strong buy on the stock. Shares are flat since the beginning of 2026. The stock is down nearly 8% over the past year.