Gold breaks above $4,580, the US dollar index rises above 100, and Trump threatens to destroy all of Iran's power plants.

Ask AI · Behind the Surge in Gold Prices: How Do Geopolitical Conflicts and Policy Shifts Interact?

Reporter丨Zeng Jingjiao Ye Maixiu

Editor丨Jiang Peixia

On the evening of March 30, spot gold suddenly surged, at one point touching $4,580. NY futures gold returned to $4,600. As of 20:15 Beijing time, spot gold had retreated to around $4,556 per ounce, up more than 1.3% on the day. NY futures gold saw its gains narrow in parallel and is currently at $4,580.

With the rise in international oil prices easing, U.S. oil’s intraday high was $103 per barrel and it is now slightly higher at $101.64 per barrel. Bitcoin has continued to climb and has now reclaimed $67,000, up nearly 3% on the day. The U.S. Dollar Index has again moved above the 100 level.

Against the backdrop of escalating conflicts in the Middle East, rising oil prices, and the Federal Reserve shifting its stance from rate cuts expectations to fighting inflation, dollar buying demand has been unusually firm. Under the dual effects of geopolitical uncertainty and policy shifts, the dollar has become the world’s “default safe haven.”

On the news front, according to CCTV News, local time March 30, U.S. President Donald Trump said in a post on a social media platform that the U.S. is conducting serious talks with Iran to end military action in Iran.

Trump said, “We’ve made significant progress, but if for any reason we can’t reach an agreement in the short term—although it is very possible that we will—and if the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately restored to normal navigation, we will blow up and completely destroy all of Iran’s power plants, oil wells, and the island of Khark, and it may also include all seawater desalination plants.”

According to 21st Century Business Herald, based on the average of institutional forecasts, it is widely believed that this year gold will move toward $6,000 per ounce. JPMorgan is the most aggressive, projecting that the gold price will surge to $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026. UBS believes this target could be achieved by mid-2026. Citibank also provided a baseline forecast of reaching $6,000 per ounce by the end of 2027. Goldman Sachs, while setting its baseline scenario at $5,400 per ounce, also clearly stated that under an optimistic scenario, the gold price would exceed the $6,000 per ounce threshold.

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(Statement: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors act at their own risk.)

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