An interesting phenomenon has emerged. Trump and Putin appear to have a good surface relationship, but recently, internal attitudes within Russia toward Trump have shown a clear divergence. According to Reuters, when Trump returned to the White House last year, Russia’s hardliners were actually quite optimistic, believing that his unpredictable, deal-making style might be advantageous for Moscow on Ukraine. But now, the situation has changed.

Trump’s military actions against Iran have completely altered the perceptions of Russian elites. Many of Putin’s supporters now see him as a threat to Russia itself and are beginning to doubt whether he is the pragmatic strongman capable of realistic negotiations. Konstantin Malofeyev, a nationalist businessman and husband of a Kremlin official, openly stated: “The United States is a threat to the entire world. We are trying to negotiate with such an America on Ukraine. It wants a weak Europe, but it also wants a weak Russia.”

More direct criticism comes from influential voices. Boris Rozhin, a war blogger active under the pseudonym Cassad with nearly 800,000 followers on Telegram, said Trump is just a madman, blinded by power. “Seriously expecting to reach any agreement or deal with this monster is either foolish or treacherous,” he commented. Academic Andrei Sidorov also stated on national television that Trump is a “dangerous figure,” controlling global affairs and untrustworthy. He pointed out that Russia is now trapped in Ukraine, while the U.S. is playing the role of mediator.

Interestingly, Putin himself has not launched the same fierce attacks on Trump as his supporters have. Although the Kremlin condemned Trump’s military actions against Iran as “baseless aggression,” he has been very restrained in public. What does this indicate? It suggests that Putin is actually aware of how fragile his own position is.

According to Thomas Graham of the Council on Foreign Relations and Alan Cullison, a former Moscow correspondent for The Wall Street Journal, in an analysis on Atlantic, this is a classic strategic dilemma. Putin has long opposed the post-Cold War order established by the U.S., arguing that a unipolar world would harm Russia. Now, Trump is dismantling that order, and a multipolar world is taking shape. But this is precisely what Putin fears—because in such a world, economic and military strength are paramount, and Russia’s real situation is that the rules and institutions of the old order are actually hiding its weakness. Putin has achieved the world he wanted, but he is now being crushed by it.

More critically, Putin’s strategy toward China has not been as effective as imagined. His boast of a strategic partnership with China has fallen far short of expectations. This means he is now almost entirely betting on his relationship with Trump. Former CIA Russia analyst Rob Dannenberg pointed out in a New Year interview that Putin sees Trump as an easily manipulated target. Dannenberg said Putin knows how to exploit Trump’s ego, and that Trump is “terribly naive” about this Russian dictator. According to him, Putin sees a vain, self-centered, and greedy person—weaknesses that a seasoned spy chief would exploit. Coupled with Trump’s obsession with the Nobel Peace Prize, it’s like pushing open a door and then giving it an extra shove.

This is the current situation: on the surface, Putin and Trump seem to be close, but in reality, Putin has no other options. His supporters are questioning him, his strategy is being suppressed, and his chips are shrinking.