Bitunix Analyst: The supply chains of energy and industrial metals are simultaneously deteriorating, with the war escalating to the "real production system," and the market entering a phase of inflation and risk mispricing.

BlockBeats message, April 2, April 2, the market’s core contradiction has further expanded from “uncertain energy supply” to “damage to entity industrial production capacity.” The largest Middle East aluminum producer, EGA, saw its smelter hit and halt operations across the board; combined with production cuts by several aluminum plants in the region, this means the war is no longer only affecting energy and shipping, but directly disrupting industrial metal supply chains. This transfers inflation pressure from oil prices to the manufacturing end. This resonates with OPEC output cuts and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, upgrading the global supply contraction from a single category to a double squeeze of “energy + industrial raw materials.” Inflation expectations have come back up, and U.S. Federal Reserve officials have also clearly stated that energy shocks will broadly push up prices, forcing policy to remain restrictive.

At the same time, Trump has released a clear time frame for increasing military strikes over the next two to three weeks, but has provided no path regarding opening the strait or de-escalating the conflict. This has led oil prices to rise rapidly, bond yields to rebound, while gold instead saw selling. This shows the market is not moving into a typical safe-haven mode; instead, it is shifting toward “liquidity repricing”—funds are withdrawing from non-yielding assets and rotating into cash and assets that have pricing power. Combined with the United States potentially imposing additional tariffs on steel and aluminum and pharmaceuticals, along with multi-track policy advancement in technology, military, and resources, global trade and supply chains are being further carved up, and risks are spreading across multiple fronts.

Geopolitical structure remains highly unstable. Iran has not shown any substantive willingness to negotiate; instead, it continues to strengthen regional attacks and strategic deterrence. This means the conflict is evolving from a bilateral confrontation into multi-party involvement, raising the risks of prolonged escalation and loss of control. Against this backdrop, market behavior shows clear “short-term orientation and defensive” characteristics. U.S. employment and manufacturing data appear stable on the surface, but price indicators are rising in parallel, indicating the economy has not yet weakened but is already bearing cost pressures. As a result, capital is inclined to shorten duration and reduce risk exposure. BTC is still functioning as a risk-absorption outcome; the liquidity range above 69000–70100 continues to accumulate but has not been effectively digested. Price pressure remains around 68000, reflecting insufficient willingness to absorb funds. Below 65500 is the key test zone under the current structure; once energy or the fighting escalates again, this zone could trigger a chain reaction of liquidity release.

Overall, the market has entered a new phase dominated by “supply chain disruption”: energy, metals, and geopolitics all act simultaneously, lifting inflation expectations without providing growth support, creating a typical mismatch between risk and price. In the absence of policy anchors and war-related exports, asset prices will continue to be driven by liquidity and risk appetite.