Major Cycle: Prices are still moving within a downward channel, with the overall trend dominated by bears.

Minor Level: Based on the 4530 trend line forming a rebound structure, currently in a stage of testing the rebound.

Resistance: 4800-4900 (shorting zone), 5000, 5150 (strong resistance at the upper channel boundary)

Support: 4530 (minor trend line, the dividing line between bulls and bears), 4000-4100 (strong support at the lower channel boundary)

Minor Level Focus: Watch for a pullback to the 4530 trend line. If the trend line holds, the rebound continues, targeting 4900-5000, with strong resistance at 5150; if it breaks below the 4530 trend line, the price will re-enter the major downtrend channel and continue downward.

Core Strategy: Major bear, minor bull, primarily bearish with some short-term longs.
Shorting: Short at resistance during the rebound in the 4800-4900 zone, with a stop loss above 4950, targeting 4530, and if broken, aiming for 4100.

Strong rebound test at the 5150 upper channel boundary, short after resistance is confirmed, with a stop loss at 5200, targeting 4800 and 4530.

Long positions (short-term only): After a pullback to the 4530 trend line and stabilization, try small longs with a stop loss at 4480, targeting 4800-4900, and avoid overtrading. $XAU