"Customers specifically came yesterday morning and bought several hundred grams of investment gold bars!" On-the-ground investigation of "Shanghai Shuibei" after the sharp drop in gold prices—bottom-fishing and waiting game—what is the popularity of "investment gold bars"?

Since late March, international gold prices have staged an “epic-level” massive shock. After setting the largest weekly drop since 1983, spot gold overall has been stuck in a choppy tug-of-war phase. As of March 27, COMEX gold was quoted at $4,489.7 per ounce, and London gold at $4,493.36 per ounce.

This weekend, the reporter visited the Zijincheng Jewelry Trading Center—known as “Shanghai Shui Bei”—on the ground. After the sharp drop in gold prices, the “Shanghai Shui Bei” market is now playing out a real contest over “greed and fear”: some people rush in to buy in bulk at bargain prices, some people bring old gold jewelry to exchange for new items, and many others still hold cash and wait, expecting the gold price to show up at “an even lower point.”

A surge of demand buyers and “gold-chasers”

Even on the weekend, foot traffic in the “Shanghai Shui Bei” market remains strong. Some popular gold shops are surrounded so tightly by consumers that the displays are packed; the counters are crowded with people selecting designs and asking about prices.

“We want to buy our ‘three golds’ while the gold price is down.” A young couple at the scene, choosing dragon-and-phoenix bangles, told the reporter. Because they had been keeping an eye on things as gold prices had stayed high and did not make a move, the sudden drop this time made them decide to act.

A Shanghai young female consumer, Zhang Wan (a pseudonym), shared with the reporter that she originally came along with a friend just to look around casually, but she didn’t expect the store to be so busy. This kind of atmosphere also made her develop a “rush to buy gold” mindset, and she started actively “hunting for gold” together with her friend: “After all, over this period, gold prices really have fallen quite a bit.”

Multiple merchants also confirmed this consumption scenario. One shop owner said plainly that when gold prices were in a high-range earlier on, customer traffic at the store was relatively calm; after the gold price fell, foot traffic rebounded noticeably. “The demand customers who were unwilling to make the purchase earlier have all come. Wedding & celebration gold jewelry and large-weight solid bangles are selling well.”

The reporter noticed that the on-site investment gold bar area looked somewhat quiet, with mainly inquiries and observation, sharply contrasting with the lively jewelry-gold market. However, one shop owner told the reporter that there are also investors who take the opportunity to buy in before the big drop. “Yesterday morning, there was a customer who came specifically to buy investment gold bars—taking away several hundred grams.”

In the “Shanghai Shui Bei” market, gold price quotes track international gold’s real-time fluctuations. On the day, the gold price was 1,066 yuan per gram. Compared with brand-name jewelry stores charging 1,300 yuan per gram or more for their jewelry-gold products, the “real-time gold price + labor fee” low-premium model in the “Shanghai Shui Bei” market has become the core advantage for attracting many price-sensitive consumers and investors.

At the same time, the reporter also noticed that young people are currently becoming the main force buying gold. According to one consumer, buying gold today is not mainly for marriage and dowry purposes, but more for the practicality of gold jewelry.

“A few years ago, I liked buying exquisite platinum jewelry more, but in the past two years, as gold prices kept rising, I’ve been a bit regretful that I didn’t buy gold earlier. Gold jewelry can be worn and also has investment value. So this time, when gold prices dropped, I plan to pick some as well—basically buying a wearable wealth-management product.” The consumer said.

According to the “China Gold & Jewellery Industry Development Report” released by the China Gold Association, in the 2026 gold consumption market, the share of young people under 35 indeed shows a clear upward trend. According to the specific data, the share of consumers under 30 in gold consumption increased from 38% previously to 47%.

“Will it drop even more?”

The game is still ongoing, waiting for an even lower point

Although the crowd buying bargain deals is coming one after another, market hesitation is just as strong—many consumers are still waiting for the gold price to go further down.

“I think it can drop more. Gold prices will fall to below 1,000 yuan.” A consumer trying on a ring at a counter said she loved the design, but in the end still put the gold jewelry back. She admitted that the recent gold price trend has been swinging back and forth, and she wants to wait a bit longer.

When consumers ask whether the current level is the “bottom,” merchants look extremely helpless: “If I could say for sure which day is the low point, I’d have already stocked up. ” The merchant said that nobody can accurately time the lowest point of the gold price— even if the difference is only 20 yuan per gram, for a bangles weighing 20 to 30 grams, the price difference could be several hundred to over a thousand yuan. Everyone keeps thinking about waiting for a lower level, but actually nobody knows where the low point will be.

This kind of waiting-and-wavering mindset is common in the market. Some people hold cash and wait for a lower point, while others regret buying at earlier high points. One consumer lamented, “Gold prices have fallen for so many days already—people don’t really mind waiting just a few more days.” In the eyes of many consumers, it’s already a “win” to buy when prices are lower than at the highs. But wanting to accurately time a bargain purchase is much harder.

Ice and fire on two fronts: “investment silver bars” with no takers

In sharp contrast to the crowds in front of the gold counter is the silver jewelry and investment silver bar area in the “Shanghai Shui Bei” market, which looks especially quiet, with few consumers stopping to ask.

At a counter specializing in precious-metal bars and blocks, when the shop owner talked about sales of investment silver bars, he shook his head helplessly: “Now almost nobody buys silver bars.” He explained that recently, silver’s price volatility has even been more violent than gold’s. “The up-and-down swings are too big, so everyone doesn’t dare to touch it.”

A seasoned “gold-chaser” also told the reporter that from the perspective of steady asset allocation, “gold bars are definitely steadier.” Even though silver’s per-unit price is lower and the entry threshold is not high, the risk of price fluctuations is far greater than gold’s. Under the current market environment, most investors would rather embrace gold than take the risk of buying silver.

Where will gold go next? Latest outlook

Regarding the recent decline in gold prices, Xia Yingying, head of the Precious Metals and New Energy Research Group at Nanhua Futures, said that although there are conflicts in the Middle East right now, gold has not seen traditional safe-haven upside. The main reasons are as follows:

First, expectations for energy-shock reversal and policy shifts have pushed real interest rates higher, suppressing gold’s valuation. The risk in the Strait of Hormuz has driven up oil prices, directly threatening the path of a fall in inflation, weakening the Fed’s expectations for rate cuts this year, and even turning those expectations toward rate hikes. Rising yields on U.S. Treasuries and a rebound in the U.S. dollar index have raised real interest rates, forming a valuation suppression on gold as a zero-yield asset; safe-haven demand is offset by the interest-rate factor.

Second, the dollar’s safe-haven position has a temporary advantage. The U.S. dollar has both safe-haven attributes and liquidity advantages. The dollar index weakness earlier reflected a relative valuation advantage. Combined with a more hawkish shift in expectations for monetary policy, the dollar index rebound diverted safe-haven funds and formed a zero-sum pattern of “the dollar rises and gold falls.”

Third, liquidity management and strategic spending trigger phase-based sell-offs. The central bank of Russia sells gold to hedge its fiscal deficit. The central bank of Poland also briefly sells gold for defense financing plans. At the same time, high oil prices worsen some emerging markets’ trade deficits and put pressure on foreign exchange markets; turbulence in financial markets intensifies liquidity pressure. As a result, gold’s needs for liquidation and safe-haven demand become misaligned. In short, this round of geopolitical impact activates traditional macro factors that suppress gold through the chain of “inflation—interest rates—liquidity,” temporarily pulling it away from safe-haven asset pricing logic.

Looking ahead, however, Xia Yingying said that the long-term bullish expectation for gold remains unchanged, but the gold’s medium-term performance needs to be determined by the Fed’s monetary policy. The probability of Fed rate hikes this year is still relatively low. Although current market expectations have shifted toward the Fed turning hawkish and raising rates this year, “In the future, if the situation in the Middle East eases somewhat, expectations for monetary policy may be able to shift back toward easing (dovish) and boost gold prices.”

Xia Yingying advised that in the face of sharp gold price volatility, investors should treat the market rationally, avoid “chasing rallies and selling in panic,” and strictly control the use of leverage. For laying out positions at lower prices, it is necessary to combine with one’s own risk tolerance. One should not blindly buy the dips; instead, priority should be given to signals that gold prices have stopped falling, progress in geopolitical developments, and changes in macro policies, among other factors.

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