Opinion: Bitcoin will enter the final accumulation phase of this cycle, with a maximum decline of over 40%

ZkProver · 2026-04-02T03:16:00+00:00

Analyst Alicharts states that Bitcoin has declined 52% since October 2025. Recently, an SMA crossover signal has appeared, and historical patterns suggest entering the final accumulation window within 3-6 days. Historical data shows that the 50 and 200 SMA crossovers typically indicate a bottom and buying opportunity, with a possible final decline of 40-52%, with a shakeout target between $30,000 and $40,000.

ZkProver

2026-04-02 03:16:00

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ChainCatcher message, according to analyst Alicharts, Bitcoin has fallen 52% since its October 2025 peak. On February 27, a 3-day SMA crossover signal appeared (a death cross between the 50-period and 200-period SMA). This has continued for 30 days so far. Historical patterns suggest that within 3–6 days, it may enter this cycle’s final accumulation window.

Alicharts points out that historical records show that in every major cycle since 2014, the 50 and 200 SMA crossovers have marked absolute bottoms and golden buying opportunities. Past cycles show that 23–33 days after the crossover, the final leg of a 40–52% decline will occur, completing the bear-market shakeout. The potential shakeout target for this cycle is between $30,000 and $40,000, after which the next bull market would arrive.

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