The Strait of Hormuz, the global supermarket begins to raise prices—

It's not just oil prices going up~
Many people haven't realized the importance of this strait: 20%–25% of global shipping of oil and about 33% of fertilizer shipments pass through Hormuz.
What does a fertilizer supply cutoff mean?
It means that what is planted this year may yield less next year~
The supply chain has already started to activate, and every link is increasing prices:
Oil prices rise → Natural gas prices rise → Heating, electricity, and transportation costs all increase~
Fertilizer shortage → Agricultural costs soar → Expectations of reduced crop yields form~
Food becomes expensive → Feed costs rise → Meat, eggs, and dairy follow suit~
The UN Conference on Trade and Development has warned that about 45% of sulfur, 33% of urea, and other fertilizer trade must pass through this strait, and supply disruptions directly threaten spring planting in the Northern Hemisphere and global food security~
This is not a point inflation; it is systemic inflation—spanning from underground oil to every item on the dining table~
The Federal Reserve fears the worst: stagflation.
The economy is slowing down, prices are soaring, rate cuts can't boost growth, and rate hikes can't control energy prices~
Monetary policy's impact on supply-side shocks is basically blind men feeling the elephant~