Crash! Trump’s Prime Time Speech Sparks Global Market Turmoil: Gold Plunges $100, Oil Surges 5%, The Truth Lies in These 3 Points

2026-04-02 10:23 Beijing 14,356 views

How did a speech by Trump cause gold to collapse and oil to skyrocket?
On April 2, the global financial markets were once again hit by a “black swan.” U.S. President Trump delivered a rare nationwide prime time TV address, intended to soothe market nerves amid Middle East turmoil and regain declining political support, but unexpectedly triggered an even larger market storm — international spot gold plunged over $100 within the day, spot silver fell more than 3%, while U.S. and Brent crude oil prices surged over 5%. Global assets once again experienced intense volatility.

The core contradiction behind this market upheaval triggered by Trump’s speech lies in the fierce hedging between “withdrawal of troops as a positive signal” and “military escalation signals.” Seemingly contradictory statements reveal a complex game involving geopolitical tensions, energy dynamics, and monetary policy, which directly determines the short-term direction of global assets.

Analysis of Trump’s Speech: Half Soothing, Half “Declaration of War”
This nationwide TV address by Trump was a “contradiction in itself”—claiming that the conflict was nearing its end while hinting at escalation; reassuring energy markets while avoiding key issues; every statement precisely hit market nerves.

On the military front, Trump declared that the “Epic Anger Operation” achieved decisive victory, with strategic goals nearly accomplished, stating, “Never in human warfare history have enemies suffered such devastating losses in just a few weeks.” But immediately after, he sent a heavy signal: “In the next two to three weeks, we will deliver heavy blows to them,” reaffirming “we have significantly weakened Iran’s missile and drone capabilities and will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons.”

This tough stance appears firm but exposes Trump’s dilemma: on one hand, the ongoing conflict entering its fifth week is becoming harder to control, and he needs to demonstrate results and find an “exit strategy”; on the other hand, he cannot truly ease military pressure, making his speech more like a mobilization at the start of war rather than a summary after a month, shattering market hopes for “de-escalation.”

On energy, Trump tried to ease market concerns about supply, stating “the U.S. no longer relies on Middle Eastern oil, thanks to Venezuela’s energy support,” and called the rise in domestic gasoline prices a “short-term phenomenon,” promising “oil production will soon increase significantly.” But regarding the most critical issue—the Strait of Hormuz—he was vague, offering no timeline, only saying “the strait will naturally reopen after the conflict ends.”

It’s important to note that the Strait of Hormuz accounts for 20% of global oil and 20% of liquefied natural gas shipments. Since the U.S.-Iran conflict erupted on February 28, the strait has been effectively blocked, with traffic nearly collapsing. The world faces the largest energy supply disruption since the 1970s, with an average daily oil supply shortfall of 20 million barrels. This is the biggest pain point in the current global energy market. Trump’s ambiguous remarks only add to the uncertainty of energy supply.

Underlying Logic of the Market Shock: Three Factors Overlap, Emotions Run Wild
Why can a single Trump speech trigger extreme market reactions—massive sell-offs and surges? The key lies in the overlap of three major factors, which completely disrupt market balance and worsen already fragile market sentiment.

1. Military escalation expectations counteracting all positives
Previously, markets had gradually absorbed the initial shock of Middle East conflict, even rebounding to a temporary high of $4,775 per ounce amid signs of “phase-wise easing,” boosting risk appetite briefly. But Trump’s statement that “in two to three weeks, there will be increased strikes” directly overturned all easing expectations, making markets realize: the conflict is not nearing resolution but may escalate further.

This expectation reversal immediately triggered capital flight: traditionally safe assets like gold, overwhelmed by military escalation uncertainty, experienced panic selling; while oil, due to “rising supply disruption risks,” became a favored target, pushing U.S. and Brent crude prices sharply higher—Brent oil has surged from about $70 per barrel before the conflict to $112, a gain of over 60%. Trump’s speech further reinforced the upward price expectation.

2. High interest rates suppress gold, inflation expectations fluctuate
The sharp decline in gold is driven not only by geopolitical sentiment reversal but also by the environment of high interest rates. The Federal Reserve’s March 2026 meeting kept rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with projections indicating only one possible 25 basis point rate cut this year, and some officials leaning toward no cuts at all, implying prolonged high-rate environment.

As a non-yielding asset, gold’s opportunity cost rises sharply in a high-interest-rate environment—holding dollars or U.S. Treasuries yields stable risk-free returns, while holding gold entails price volatility risk. This is why institutional funds have been continuously reducing gold holdings, with the world’s largest gold ETF (SPDR) shedding nearly 50 tons in March.

Meanwhile, rising oil prices further boost inflation expectations. The market generally believes that higher oil prices will pass through costs to push up global prices. The Fed’s attitude toward inflation has shifted from “waiting for a decline” to “confirming progress.” If inflation remains high, the only rate cuts this year may be delayed, further suppressing gold prices. This creates a closed loop: “Oil price rises → inflation increases → high interest rates persist → gold declines.”

3. Conflicting signals intensify volatility, funds fall into confusion
The biggest problem with Trump’s speech is the “inconsistent signals”: claiming “core objectives are close to being achieved” while saying “we will intensify strikes”; reassuring energy markets but avoiding key issues like the Strait of Hormuz. This contradiction causes market sentiment to oscillate between “hope for easing” and “risk worries,” with funds losing clear direction, reacting mainly through chasing rallies and selling dips.

Moreover, Iran later denied “requesting a ceasefire,” further increasing market divergence on geopolitical developments. Coupled with the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, shipping insurance premiums have soared to 100 times pre-conflict levels, with 150–200 ships stranded in the strait. The uncertainty of energy transportation has amplified market panic.

Gold’s Future Trend: Mainly Volatile, Two Key Variables to Watch
After this plunge, the gold market is stuck in a “battle between bulls and bears,” neither weakening significantly nor rebounding quickly. In the short term, it will likely remain in a high-level oscillation pattern, with the main trend depending on two key variables.

Technical outlook: Clear dividing line, difficult to break the oscillation
On daily charts, gold still shows a rebound structure, but the upside is approaching key resistance levels, near the previous downtrend extension. The $4,800 level is a critical dividing line: a successful breakout could open further upside space; repeated failure to break through may form a temporary top, leading to deeper correction.

Support levels are concentrated around $4,560, which is the previous correction low and a volume cluster zone. Falling below this could trigger a new round of selling. On the 4-hour chart, after a short-term rally, gold has pulled back, with technical indicators turning neutral. Short-term momentum weakens, likely leading to range-bound oscillations, with risks of testing support again.

Fundamental outlook: Economic data + geopolitical developments
First, U.S. economic data will be a short-term key. This week’s initial jobless claims and non-farm payrolls will directly influence Fed expectations: weaker data may suppress the dollar and support gold; strong data will reinforce high-rate expectations, further pressuring gold prices.

Second, evolving geopolitical and energy supply situations. If Trump clarifies the pace of military actions or if the Strait of Hormuz sees easing of navigation restrictions, market sentiment may gradually stabilize, supporting gold. Conversely, escalation of conflict and further widening of supply gaps will push oil prices higher, intensifying inflation fears and possibly pressuring gold again.

It’s worth noting that gold’s hedge properties have not completely disappeared—global geopolitical uncertainties and inflation pressures remain. Central banks’ continued gold accumulation also provide long-term support for gold prices, though short-term high rates and sentiment volatility suppress trend formation.

Summary: Market volatility persists, investors should beware of emotional traps
Trump’s speech is essentially a “failed reassurance crisis PR”—not only failing to ease market anxiety but also amplifying geopolitical uncertainties, triggering intense global asset fluctuations. The current market is at a critical juncture with multiple factors intertwined: a weakening dollar and rising inflation expectations support gold, while high interest rates and geopolitical risks limit its upside. The short-term trend will be more complex.

Investors should be cautious of “emotion-driven” short-term volatility, avoiding blindly chasing rallies or panicking at dips: focus on key levels at $4,800 and $4,560, adjusting strategies based on breakout signals; closely monitor U.S. economic data and Middle East developments, especially progress in the Strait of Hormuz and Fed policy signals.

In the near term, market volatility will continue, and gold’s “oscillation pattern” will be hard to break quickly. Only by understanding the core logic and not being swayed by short-term emotions can investors seize potential opportunities and avoid risks in this geopolitical and capital game.
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