Trump: After Iran, the next is Cuba

Byline: Conflux

“After Iran, the next is Cuba.”

On March 30 this year, U.S. President Donald Trump’s remark once again pushed an economy that had long been on the margins back into the global spotlight.

If you interpret this statement as nothing more than political rhetoric, you may underestimate its significance. What deserves more attention is that before such language appeared, the market had already begun to “price in uncertainty.”

In mid-March, on a certain decentralized prediction platform, three accounts established positions almost simultaneously, betting on “the U.S. invading Cuba in 2026,” with a total amount of roughly $60,000.

By itself, this behavior does not point to any certain outcome, but it reflects a change: Cuba is re-entering the risk-pricing framework, moving from a long-ignored variable.

The backdrop to this shift is the continued tightening of the real-world environment.

At the beginning of 2026, the U.S. further strengthened energy and trade restrictions on Cuba. On January 30, Trump signed an executive order declaring a national emergency and imposing tariffs on countries that provide oil to Cuba.

The direct result was that Cuba experienced fuel shortages and widespread blackouts. Economic operations and the social environment were put under pressure in tandem. And in an environment like this, the first thing to change is often not production, but a more fundamental issue: whether capital can still flow smoothly.

Cuba’s crypto market is gradually taking shape under this very problem.

In 2020, after Western Union shut down the remittance channel from the U.S. to Cuba, a cross-border funding chain that had previously been stable was cut off. Many households that relied heavily on overseas remittances were forced to look for alternative routes.

Against this backdrop, crypto assets—including Bitcoin—began to take on part of the function of transferring value across borders. The defining feature of this phase was clear: demand came before regulation, and use came before institutions.

Subsequently, the Central Bank of Cuba introduced in 2021 a regulatory framework related to virtual assets, applying licensing management to virtual asset service providers and recognizing their use within a specific scope. This does not mean that crypto assets were incorporated into the traditional financial system; rather, it formed a model closer to “boundary management”—one that allows their existence while emphasizing risk isolation.

This institutional arrangement moved the crypto market from a “spontaneous activity” phase into a “measurable and manageable” phase.

Around 2022, as the sanctions environment continued, Cuba began discussing alternative settlement routes with countries such as Russia, and crypto assets were brought into the framework of cross-border payment discussions. At this point, its role had already expanded from a “supplementary tool at the individual level” into a “potential settlement option.”

If you take an overall look from 2020 to 2026, you can see a relatively clear evolution logic:

When traditional payment channels shrink, cryptocurrencies first appear as an alternative route;

After this alternative route is repeatedly used, it starts to come into the regulatory spotlight;

When external constraints continue to exist, it is further incorporated into broader payment and settlement discussions.

At the usage level, cryptocurrencies are already embedded in multiple scenarios in Cuba.

On the one hand, they are used for cross-border remittances and value transfers. Data shows that more than 100,000 Cuban users are using Bitcoin and other crypto assets, and platforms such as BitRemesas and QvaPay have been serving this demand for a long time.

On the other hand, they are also starting to enter a more formal commercial environment.

On March 23, 2026, for the first time, the Central Bank of Cuba authorized ten companies to use virtual assets to conduct cross-border commercial operations. It allowed them, within the licensing framework, to purchase, transfer, and custody, and to disclose transaction information on a quarterly basis.

This means that the role of crypto assets is extending from a “supplementary tool” to a “tool within the system.”

If you place Cuba within a larger framework, this evolution is not an isolated case.

Sanctioned economies such as Iran are also exploring alternative payment routes, including those involving cryptocurrencies. The difference is that each country forms different ways of use based on its own resources and constraints.

Cuba’s path is more concentrated on payment and circulation, rather than production or monetization of resources.

Returning to the original question: why did the market start taking action before Trump made his remarks?

The core reason is that when uncertainty rises, the market not only re-evaluates the probability of events themselves, but also simultaneously assesses a more fundamental variable: whether the capital flow routes will change.

In Cuba’s context, cryptocurrencies are part of those routes.

From remittance disruptions, to the establishment of regulation, to entering commercial use, Cuba’s crypto market is not the result of a single technological wave, but a path that has gradually formed under real-world constraints.

And as the external environment continues to change, this path itself is still being adjusted.

*This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. There are risks in the market; investment should be done with caution.