4.2 Afternoon BTC/ETH Forecast and Analysis

Current Reference Prices: BTC 67,150 / ETH 2,092
Main reasons for the morning plunge:
1. US-Iran geopolitical conflict (biggest negative factor) - Trump’s speech at 9 a.m. today: claimed victory in Iran operations, plans to withdraw troops in 2-3 weeks, but reserves the right to strike at any time.
- Iran denies seeking peace, firmly refuses to open the Strait of Hormuz, and the conflict has not substantially eased.
- Market panic: unresolved war risks lead to capital sell-offs in cryptocurrencies and other risk assets, triggering a morning plunge.
2. Federal Reserve macro policy (continued suppression) - CME interest rate futures: 97.4% probability of maintaining high interest rates in April, very low chance of rate cuts in June.
- Rising oil prices due to Middle East tensions → inflation rebound risk → Fed difficulty easing → crypto liquidity remains tight.
3. Market liquidity (weak bias) - Crypto fear index remains in the fear zone, risk aversion is strong.
- BTC/ETH saw increased volume and a drop in early trading, with a surge in contract liquidations, intensifying the decline.

I. BTC
- Short entry: 68,000–68,200 (retest breakdown zone, optimal at 68,100)
- Stop loss: 68,600 (breakout invalidates short-term bearish view)
- Target 1: 67,200 (intraday support)
- Target 2: 66,500–66,800 (look here if below 67,000)
- Logic: Geopolitical + high interest rate suppression, rebound shorting has higher win rate

- Long entry: 67,000–67,100 (must see volume increase and long lower shadow to enter)
- Stop loss: 66,800 (exit immediately if broken)
- Target 1: 67,800
- Target 2: 68,200 (look for breakout)
- Logic: Only betting on oversold rebound, avoid fighting the trend

II. ETH
- Short entry: 2,120–2,130 (linked resistance zone, optimal at 2,125)
- Stop loss: 2,155
- Target 1: 2,090 (morning low)
- Target 2: 2,050–2,030 (look here if below 2,087)

- Long entry: 2,085–2,095 (re-entry after stabilization signals)
- Stop loss: 2,070
- Target 1: 2,120
- Target 2: 2,130
- Logic: Focus on rebounds only, avoid bottom fishing

Main direction: Bearish mainly, geopolitical + high interest rate double suppression, rebounds are better for shorting.
Only consider long positions on oversold short-term signals, strictly light positions, quick in and out.
Risk control first: Stop loss must be in place, as US-Iran sudden news can cause sharp volatility.