Three-Tenths of a Percent Law

Soros once introduced a Three-Tenths of a Percent Law:

Among 10,000 futures traders:
1,000 people can correctly predict the market trend,
which means about one-tenth of the people can see the correct trend overall;
but among these 1,000 people who predict correctly,
only 100 actually make correct trades,
meaning only 1% of the total—those who both predict correctly and execute correctly—are able to profit.

Of these 100 people who predict and trade correctly,
how many ultimately make money?
Only 3, which means only three ten-thousandths of the total—those who both predict and trade correctly—end up earning.

To summarize:
Out of 10,000 people, 1,000 can predict the correct trend,
and among those 1,000, only 100 make correct trades,
but among these 100 successful traders, only 3 ultimately make a profit!
In other words, the final probability of profit is just three ten-thousandths!