Recently, regarding the reasons why cryptocurrencies are not rising, Wintermute has released an interesting analysis. It suggests that the traditional 4-year cycle is no longer functioning.

Looking at their OTC trading data, the average duration of altcoin bullish periods in 2025 is only about 20 days. This is a sharp reduction from 60 days the previous year, shrinking to one-third. In other words, the phenomenon of cryptocurrencies not rising mainly pertains to the altcoin market.

I believe the flow of capital has changed significantly. Previously, when funds entered Bitcoin, they would naturally ripple through ETH and then into the entire altcoin market. This created a narrative-driven market. However, now ETFs and デジタル資産トレジャリー企業（DAT） have become a "closed garden." Capital is locked into BTC, ETH, and some large-cap altcoins, with little liquidity flowing outside of them.

Another concern is that individual investors' interest has shifted toward themes in the stock market, such as AI and quantum computing. So, rather than cryptocurrencies not rising, it’s more that investors’ attention has turned elsewhere.

Wintermute points out that three scenarios are necessary to break this structural shift. First, ETFs and DAT need to expand their investment targets. With applications for Solana and XRP ETFs progressing, signs of this are already emerging. Second, the rise in BTC and ETH prices should ripple through the entire altcoin market. However, how much this will actually happen remains uncertain. Third, individual investors’ interest needs to shift back from stocks to cryptocurrencies, but this is considered the least likely scenario.

In summary, predictions based on the traditional 4-year cycle are no longer valid. We are now in a phase where understanding liquidity flows and investor psychology is crucial. The phenomenon of cryptocurrencies not rising is not just a temporary stagnation but indicates a fundamental change in market structure.