April Market Outlook: When the Dove of Peace Flies Over the Strait of Hormuz

On April 1st, a piece of news shook the global markets: a dramatic easing in the US-Iran situation. The Iranian president signaled a ceasefire, while Trump hinted that "operations could end within 2-3 weeks." Buoyed by this, the crypto market, US stocks, and gold and silver rarely moved in a synchronized "triple arrow" rally.

When risk assets and safe-haven assets rise together, it’s not chaos behind the scenes but a consensus — the market is pricing in the "peace dividend."

Ceasefire, Can It Truly Materialize?

From both sides’ statements, April indeed presents a rare window for easing. A clear "end date" provides strong support for short-term sentiment.

But the Middle East situation has never been a simple bilateral issue. The enforcement of agreements and internal hardliners’ resistance are potential variables. The more likely scenario is that in April, low-intensity conflict continues or even pauses. For the market, this is enough — the Damocles sword hanging overhead has at least temporarily been lifted.

Crypto Market: Volatile Upward, But Not a Broad Bull

The real logic behind the "triple arrow" rally is that the market is pricing in liquidity easing expectations brought by a ceasefire. Geopolitical risks cool down, oil prices fall, inflation pressures ease, and rate cut expectations re-emerge.

However, April is not a smooth path. The US earnings season kicks off, and the "cooling-off period" after Bitcoin halving continues, making funds more selective.

The forecast is: the main assets (BTC/ETH) are likely to push toward previous highs driven by positive news, but altcoin season will be highly differentiated. Chasing highs requires caution; choosing the right sectors is more important than chasing hot topics.

Which sectors are worth early positioning?

Since the core drivers this cycle are "geopolitical risk easing + return of rate cut expectations," funds will naturally tilt toward two types of assets:

RWA (Real-World Assets)
If the macro narrative shifts to "rate cut trading," falling US Treasury yields will directly benefit rate-sensitive RWA sectors. Leading projects recently have mainnet migrations or large collaborations expected, resonating with macro fundamentals.

AI + DePIN
If US tech stocks strengthen due to rate cut expectations in April, the narrative will spill over into crypto AI-related projects. Coupled with some projects’ mainnet launches, these could become breakout points for capital inflows.

A Quick Reminder

These "news-driven" markets tend to come and go quickly. When good news actually materializes — such as the signing of a peace agreement — be cautious of short-term profit-taking by funds.

For ordinary investors, rather than chasing short-term news, it’s better to follow the "rate cut expectation" theme and focus on sectors with solid fundamentals and clear narratives.

May the April wind blow away the smoke of war and bring rewards to the patient.