Has the unprecedented semiconductor memory bubble arrived?

DRAM prices for semiconductor memory are rising further. The benchmark product’s bulk transaction prices for November–December 2025 increased by 40% compared with the prices reached in the previous round of negotiations in September. Major global companies are prioritizing shipments of artificial intelligence (AI) servers for data centers, resulting in insufficient supply of benchmark products for everyday sectors such as personal computers (PCs). Buyers find it difficult to secure the required quantities.

DRAM is installed in devices such as PCs, smartphones, and server equipment in data centers for temporary data storage. Bulk transaction prices are determined through monthly or quarterly negotiations among memory manufacturers as sellers, equipment manufacturers as buyers, and module makers.

Due to supply falling short of demand, a rare situation occurred in October 2025 in which bulk transaction prices could not be formed. While prices were set for November–December, “‘we were unable to procure the quantities we hoped for’” (an executive at an electronic trading company). Others also pointed out that DDR5 and the prior-generation product DDR3 rose by 40% to 2 times, and 2 to 4 times, respectively, in October–December 2025 compared with the previous quarter. A representative at another trading company said, “An unprecedented semiconductor memory bubble that goes beyond benchmark products has already arrived.”

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