The 20% Ethereum Price Risk: Explaining Why Institutions Continue to Choose Bitcoin

Ethereum Price
ETHUSD
was briefly traded above $2,100 on April 1 with a head-and-shoulders pattern on the 12-hour chart, threatening an almost 20% breakdown to $1,570. This structural risk may be the reason why institutions prefer Bitcoin over ETH.

The (spot Bitcoin ETF) attracted inflows of $1.32 billion in March, while Ethereum ETF products continued a five-month outflow trend. Ethereum’s price has increased 7% over the past 30 days, compared to Bitcoin’s 2.7%. However, regulatory capital is flowing in the opposite direction. Technical structures and weakening network demand indicate that institutions see risks not reflected in this short-term rally.

Institutions Still Favor Bitcoin Over Ethereum

Ethereum ETF products recorded a net outflow of $46.01 million in March, according to SoSoValue data. While this is much better than February’s outflow of $369.87 million and January’s $353.20 million, it marks the fifth consecutive month of institutional capital exiting ETH products since November 2025.

The comparison with Bitcoin is striking. The spot Bitcoin ETF managed to attract $1.32 billion in the same month, reversing a four-month outflow trend. Institutions face the same macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical risks, and quarter-end rebalancing periods, yet they are choosing to buy Bitcoin and sell Ethereum.

Ethereum ETF’s failure to record inflows, even during a 7% price increase, shows that this rally has yet to convince regulated capital. It appears that institutions are factoring in structural risks not visible from short-term price movements.

This skepticism is further confirmed by on-chain holder behavior pointing in the same direction.

Demand Drops 80% in 10 Days

The net position change of holders, a Glassnode metric tracking 30-day ETH ownership by addresses holding at least 155 days, peaked at 543,169 ETH on March 21. But by March 31, that number had fallen to 109,678 ETH, a drop of about 80%.

This indicates that medium- and long-term holders, who were actively accumulating in mid-March, have drastically reduced their purchases over the last 10 days of the month. This period coincides with increasing outflows from Ethereum ETFs and general crypto market pressure from the geopolitical crisis in the Strait of Hormuz.

When ETF outflows and on-chain holder behavior weaken simultaneously, demand bases shrink from both sides. Institutional capital exits through regulated products, and long-term spot holders reduce accumulation. As a result, Ethereum’s price has a thinner foundation, even as technical structures suggest a significant risk of breakdown.

This risk is now clearly visible on the 12-hour chart.

Ethereum Price Warning: 20% Breakdown Target

The 12-hour Ethereum price chart shows a head-and-shoulders pattern formed since late February. The head peaks at $2,380. Currently, the right shoulder is still forming, with the price around $2,100.

This pattern has a potential decline of about 19.32% from the neckline, approaching a 20% risk, with a breakdown target near $1,570. However, the neckline has not yet been fully broken. The right shoulder continues to form as long as Ethereum stays below $2,384. If the price rises above $2,200, it would invalidate the proportionality of the left shoulder, but the pattern would only be truly invalidated if there is a strong, sustained push above $2,380.

The 20-period and 50-period exponential moving averages (EMA) on the 12-hour chart, as trend indicators, are at $2,070 and $2,080, respectively. These levels are currently key supports. The last time both EMAs were broken together, starting March 26, Ethereum corrected by 8.44%. If the price drops back below $2,070, the right shoulder’s decline could deepen toward the $2,010 area, then to $1,950, which is near the neckline zone.

If $1,950 is broken, the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $1,840 will serve as temporary support. The full target of this movement is around $1,570, with an extension to $1,400 if selling pressure intensifies.

Closing above $2,120 on the 12-hour chart could delay the breakdown. However, only inflows from Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and accumulation by holders can provide the demand push needed to break above $2,380 and invalidate this pattern.