Fitch Raises Commodity Price Assumptions, Analysts Highlight Opportunities in Gold and Copper

The international rating agency, Fitch Ratings, has raised its commodity and mining metal price assumptions for 2026. This revision is seen as reflecting fundamental market changes, not just short-term speculation.

Sutopo Widodo, President Commissioner of HFX International Futures, considers the rating agency’s move quite reasonable amid a strong combination of increasing global demand and supply disruption risks.

He stated that, on the demand side, the global electrification trend is a major driver for certain metal commodities such as copper and aluminum.

Meanwhile, the energy transition also strengthens the outlook for nickel, especially for electric vehicle batteries.

On the other hand, geopolitical factors and policies are also tightening supply. Uncertainty in the Middle East region, Indonesia’s export policies, and declining production in China are factors that constrain global supply.

“In this condition, the upward revision is not just speculation but a reflection of demand trends and supply risks,” Sutopo told Kontan on Wednesday (1/4/2026).

Several commodities experienced significant price revisions by Fitch Ratings. For example, copper prices are projected to rise from around US$9,500 to US$11,500 per metric ton. Aluminum increased from US$2,550 to US$2,900 per metric ton.

Meanwhile, gold is projected to rise from US$3,400 to US$4,500 per troy ounce, in line with increased safe-haven asset demand.

Thermal coal is expected to increase from US$95 to US$110 per ton due to supply disruptions, while nickel rises from US$15,000 to US$16,000 per metric ton.

Sutopo sees that the outlook for several commodities remains quite solid moving forward. Gold and copper could remain strong, driven by geopolitical factors and the global electrification trend.

Meanwhile, coal tends to be more volatile, depending on energy policy dynamics in the Asian region.

In this context, he advises investors to pay attention to some main commodities such as gold and silver, which are considered attractive as hedging instruments amid global uncertainties and monetary policy directions.

On the other hand, copper and nickel are also worth watching due to long-term trends in electrification and downstream industry development, especially in Indonesia.

For investment strategies, Sutopo emphasizes the importance of portfolio diversification. Investors should not focus solely on one commodity but combine safe-haven assets like gold with growth-based commodities such as copper and nickel.

Additionally, selecting commodity-based stocks should also consider the fundamentals of issuers, especially those with strong downstream integration like ANTM and MDKA, as well as energy sectors such as PTBA and ADRO.

He also recommends using technical and momentum approaches, entering at support levels and exiting at resistance levels, while remaining attentive to global sentiment developments.

“For medium to long-term, electrification-based commodities like copper and nickel are more suitable for hold strategies. Meanwhile, coal is more appropriate for short-term trading,” he concluded.