Geopolitical conflicts and stagflation dominate the market, with dividend assets showing defensive characteristics. The CSI Dividend ETF (515080) is strongly pushing for six consecutive gains.

March 31 saw a split in index performance. As of the time of publication, the CSI Dividend ETF (515080) rose 0.37%, showing strong momentum as it pushed for a sixth consecutive day of gains. Among constituent stocks, Huarui Automobile rose by more than 9%, Anhui Construction Engineering rose by more than 8%, while China International Freight and Zoomlion Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. led the pack in gains. Junxin Co., Ltd., Zhongchuang Zhi, Yongxing Materials, and others were among the top decliners.

On the capital flows front, the CSI Dividend ETF (515080) recorded cumulative net inflows of 300 million yuan over the past five trading days, and cumulative inflows exceeding 700 million yuan over the past ten trading days, with the latest fund size at 8.778 billion yuan.

According to the latest market disclosure information, among the constituent stocks of the CSI Dividend Index, 71 listed companies have already successively disclosed their 2025 dividend distribution plans, with a total cumulative dividend amount exceeding 90 million yuan. Of these, 16 companies paid dividends of over 100 million yuan. From an industry perspective, banks account for 60%, and oil and petrochemicals account for 20%.

CITIC Securities believes that in the short term, the market may continue to trade in a volatile range. During the adjustments, investors may seize opportunities to build positions on dips. In terms of influencing factors, this month’s index performance has been dominated by overseas factors; the escalation of geopolitical conflicts and the “stagnation-then-inflation” (stagflation) trade have become the main storyline for trading throughout the month. Within the technology category, mid-to-upstream segments have performed relatively steadily, while in the cyclical category, the energy sector has shown a relatively strong trend. Looking ahead, the market may still face volatility in the near term, and structural opportunities may be concentrated in “boom” tracks with independent underlying logic.

Regarding allocation strategies, investors may consider the defensive attributes of dividend assets and, when the time is right, position for repair directions after the marginal easing of geopolitical risk. The firm believes that against the backdrop of frequent global geopolitical conflicts and relatively weak economic growth momentum, dividend assets offer a certain degree of certainty and defensive value, and the allocation value is worth paying attention to.

According to materials, the CSI Dividend ETF (515080) tracks the A-share benchmark dividend asset index—the CSI Dividend Index—which primarily selects 100 stocks with high cash dividend yields across the two markets, dividend continuity of three years or more, and also having a certain scale and liquidity, as constituents. It uses dividend yield weighting to reflect the overall performance of high-dividend stocks in the A-share market. Investors may consider taking this ETF as a route to build positions in batches on dips; they can not only hedge short-term market risks through a “barbell strategy” and defensive strategy, but also capture opportunities for value recovery of dividend assets over the medium to long term.

（责任编辑：董萍萍 ）

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