I have been observing for some time how the eurozone continues to face pressures that no one seems willing to name directly. A recent analysis by Commerzbank confirms what many in the markets already suspected: geopolitical conflicts are leaving deep scars on the European economy.

The most interesting thing is how this is not just a problem of high prices. The entire European supply chain is being reconfigured. Energy costs remain around 40% above pre-conflict levels, and that is not an arbitrary number — it means squeezed margins in virtually the entire manufacturing industry. Germany, Italy, France... all feel the impact, but in different ways.

Take Germany as an example. Its industrial base relies heavily on cheap energy, and that no longer exists. Chemical production has fallen about 15% since the conflict began. The automotive sector is in an uncomfortable position between component shortages and energy costs that won’t decrease. Meanwhile, in the south, countries like Greece and Portugal see tourism collapsing and agricultural sectors struggling with fertilizer shortages.

What Commerzbank’s analysis highlights well is that these are not problems that will be solved in months. Europe’s energy transition, although progressing, will probably take five to seven years to show real impact. In the meantime, inflation remains a ghost that won’t disappear. The European Central Bank is in a tricky position: it needs to control prices but also avoid a recession that seems increasingly likely.

The eurozone is at a point where policy responses — plans like REPowerEU, temporary fiscal support — help but do not address the core issues. Foreign investments are looking at Europe differently now. Asian and North American companies are recalculating risks considering energy security and geopolitical stability. Some are already moving production offshore.

For small and medium-sized enterprises, the outlook is even more complicated. Banks are more cautious with credit despite expectations to stimulate lending. The European Investment Bank has had to expand guarantees just to maintain the flow of financing.

The truth is that the eurozone is navigating something unprecedented in recent history. It’s not like the 2011 debt crisis — those problems came from within. This one comes from outside, making solutions more complex. The reconfiguration of energy markets, new trade routes, investment uncertainty... all of this will continue shaping the European economy for years. 2026 is likely to be a year of ongoing adjustment rather than clear recovery.