Strategic physical assets rise during the session, the oil and gas sector advances, and the Petroleum ETF Guotai (561360) surges nearly 3% during the session.

Strategic physical assets trade higher during the day. On April 1, the oil and gas sector rose. The Guotai CSI Oil & Gas ETF (561360) jumped nearly 3% at midday.

CITIC Securities Construction Investment noted that the world is currently in a Kondratieff recession period, which is often accompanied by slowing economic growth and intensified geopolitical games. At this stage, oil, gas, and coal—being irreplaceable strategic physical assets—have not only price resilience against inflation, but also show wide-ranging volatility or a shift in the central trend more clearly superior to that of typical financial assets in a stagflation environment.

For crude oil, long-term, systemic deficiencies in capital expenditures lead to a lack of supply elasticity, forming a hard constraint on the supply side. In addition, geopolitical risk premiums—such as those associated with the Strait of Hormuz—may remain for the long term, so oil prices are expected to stay at high levels. The investment logic for energy companies is shifting into dividend-style assets with “strong free cash flow + high cash dividends + ongoing share buybacks.” From the perspective of national energy security, Xinjiang benefits from strategic shifts and resource advantages; coal-chemical industries are expected to usher in a golden age. Their development requires the state to invest in long-cycle, foundational technologies and infrastructure to overcome reliance on energy imports. In terms of natural gas, against the backdrop of the global low-carbon transition, its share of primary energy consumption is expected to continue rising. Asia is the main driver of demand growth.

The Guotai CSI Oil & Gas ETF (561360) tracks the Oil & Gas Industry Index (H30198). This index focuses on the exploration, production, processing, and related services of oil and natural gas. Its constituents cover the entire upstream-and-downstream industrial chain of the energy sector to reflect the overall performance of securities of listed companies related to the oil and gas industry. The index has a strong cyclical nature and is significantly affected by fluctuations in international commodity prices.

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Daily Economic News

(Editor: Dong Pingping)

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