$BTC The market has reacted to news suggesting the possible end of the Middle East conflict. This has led to a decline in oil prices, and the DXY has also fallen accordingly. In fact, the market is pricing in the end of the war based on some headline news. It’s worth noting that we’ve seen similar headlines before, and many times they have proven to be false. Therefore, it’s advisable to view the charts from a higher time frame perspective and ignore the noise from lower time frames.

For BTC, we are currently retesting the 67K-70K zone, which remains a resistance area. If BTC can find acceptance above this zone, it indicates that the breakout from the bear flag is a deviation, and it is re-entering the range of the bear flag. This opens up the possibility of a retracement toward the mid-range and range highs, re-entering our macro LH zone between 80K and 72K. Further action should be confirmed before proceeding.
The DXY’s rejection from the 100-101 zone plays a crucial role in this price action. As shown in the chart below, a breakout of the trendline will drive a short-term recovery in risk assets, delaying further downside in the short term. This will undoubtedly not change the macro plan; for SPX, reclaiming the 6620 area is key for further short-term gains. This will be a retest of the daily 21 EMA, which has recently been suppressing the price.