Bitunix Analyst: Cooling employment combined with energy retraction, war spillover into technological infrastructure, market enters the "risk pricing distortion" phase

BlockBeats message, April 1, the market is simultaneously absorbing three layers of shocks: “weakening employment + energy re-contraction + war spreading.”

A decline in U.S. job openings shows that gasoline prices have risen to $4 and OPEC output has fallen to its lowest level since the peak during the pandemic, implying that energy supply is being tightened again in a passive manner. With inflation pressure still unresolved, the policy path is slipping back into uncertainty. At the same time, Berkshire continues to accumulate cash, and the CFTC has strengthened regulation of manipulation in energy and information, reflecting that mainstream capital is reducing its risk exposure and staying alert to market pricing distortions.

Geopolitically, there has also been a qualitative shift. Iran has not exited the picture; instead, it has expanded the scope of its attacks from traditional energy and military facilities to U.S. technology and data infrastructure. It has directly named multiple operational outposts of Silicon Valley and defense companies in the Middle East. This indicates that the war has upgraded from “energy supply chains” to the “digital and compute infrastructure” system-level risk. Meanwhile, fragmentation within NATO has intensified: European core countries are limiting joint military coordination, while the UAE has shifted toward active military intervention in the Strait of Hormuz. This shows that the world has not formed a unified action framework; instead, it is entering a chaotic phase of multi-party games and responsibility offloading, further weakening the market’s ability to effectively price risk.

Against this backdrop, fund behavior has turned extremely conservative and short-term oriented. On the one hand, cash and safe-haven demand is rising; on the other hand, energy and war risk premiums continue to interfere with the valuation of risk assets, leaving the market without a stable anchor. BTC is therefore not an actively driven trend, but a passive reflection of whether capital is willing to take on risk. Currently, the range of 69000–70100 has formed a clear accumulation of liquidity, but the price faces short-term pressure around 68000, showing insufficient chasing demand. Below, 65500 is becoming a short-term risk testing zone; if macro conditions or the war situation upgrades again, that area may turn into a liquidity release node.

Overall, the market has shifted from “event-driven” to “structural distortion.” Weakening employment has failed to translate into expectations of easing; sustained energy contraction continues to push up implicit inflation; and war has spread from physical supply chains to digital infrastructure. In this tangle of multiple uncertainties, any price movement is essentially the result of liquidity being reallocated—not a trend being established.