Recently, I've seen many people asking whether they should still chase after gold and silver. So I pulled up the historical data and took a look, and I found some pretty harsh patterns.

Let's start with the wave from 1979 to 1980. Back then, the world was truly chaotic—oil crises, runaway inflation, geopolitical conflicts popping up everywhere, and currencies being repeatedly undermined. Gold skyrocketed from $200 to $850, a fourfold increase. Silver was even more dramatic, jumping from $6 directly to $50. It looked like a new era was about to begin, right?

But what happened? Within two months, gold was halved, and silver lost two-thirds of its value. Then came a long 20-year period of silence.

After the 2010 financial crisis, global central banks flooded the market with liquidity, and history nearly repeated itself. Gold rose from $1,000 to $1,921, and silver once again surged to $50. The familiar script, the familiar ending—gold retraced 45%, silver plummeted 70%. After that, years of slow decline and sideways movement wore down people's confidence bit by bit.

At this point, I realized a cruel pattern: the crazier the rise, the sharper the fall. It’s almost like a physical law of the precious metals market. And every rally always seems to have a perfectly reasonable reason—whether runaway inflation, liquidity flooding after a crisis, or the loosening of global order. The logic is always sound, but the timing is always the cruelest part.

So, is there anything different this time? Actually, yes. Central banks are continuously increasing their gold and silver holdings, de-dollarization is accelerating, and silver now has new narratives like AI and industrial demand. Everything seems very plausible.

But what I find truly noteworthy is another phenomenon. The current gold price seems more like it’s pricing in what might happen around 2027. This isn’t trading logic; it’s expectation pricing.

Just look at some data. The global central bank gold reserves are led by the U.S. with 8,133 tons (75% of foreign exchange reserves), followed by Germany with 3,350 tons, then Italy, France, Russia, and China with about 2,304 tons, ranking sixth. Central banks are buying, private capital is entering, and ultra-rich individuals are positioning early. Everyone is doing the same thing—paying in advance for the worst-case scenario.

So what should ordinary people do? I’ll be blunt: don’t gamble. Nobody knows where the top is, and going all-in recklessly is essentially betting against history. History has already given two clear answers—gold typically retraces more than 30%, and silver often drops 50% or more. The current market has already clearly deviated from historical volatility ranges.

The most important final point: the more it rises sharply, the bigger the correction will be later. The market never owes you a rise, but it will definitely test whether you’re truly prepared with a retracement when you’re most confident.

This is written for those willing to look at history, not just the K-line.