Bosera Market Commentary March 26: Shanghai and Shenzhen markets adjust, three major indices drop over 1%

🌟 [Bosera Market Wrap-Up March 26] The Shanghai and Shenzhen markets adjusted; the three major indexes fell by more than 1%

📝Daily Outlook

🎈Today, the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets adjusted, with all three major indexes in Shanghai and Shenzhen falling by more than 1%. Trading volume across the two markets shrank compared with yesterday to less than 2 trillion yuan. Currently, external factors still face uncertainties such as the unresolved conflict between the U.S. and Iran, disruptions in the transportation supply chain, and intensifying competition for resources. In the short term, market volatility is expected to remain at relatively high levels. Controlling position size and adopting defensive strategies may be a better choice, but there’s no need to be overly pessimistic. From the internal pricing logic of the A-share market, external geopolitical conflict is more like a risk-appetite “pulse suppression” factor, causing domestic equity markets to gradually switch from valuation-driven dynamics at the beginning of the year to profit-driven dynamics. However, it is not the fundamental variable that determines the medium-term trend. The more critical factors determining the direction of China’s domestic equity market in the second quarter are whether price repair can transmit to corporate earnings, whether the growth main theme can complete validation from expectations to actual performance, and whether the upcycle price-increase chain can continue to spread from resource products to midstream manufacturing. Therefore, after short-term volatility converges, the index level may continue to trade sideways, and the market may show more structural characteristics. Investors may consider gradually positioning around directions such as “high dividend + revaluation of tangible assets + certain growth.”

🔥News

🎈Local time March 25, Iran officially rejected the ceasefire plan proposed by the United States and put forward Iran’s five conditions for ending the war, including: the enemy must completely stop “acts of aggression and assassination”; establish effective mechanisms to ensure the war is not imposed on Iran again; guarantee and clarify war reparations and loss compensation; all fronts and resistance organizations across the entire region end the war; Iran’s right to exercise sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz must be recognized.

Brief comment: Iran strongly and firmly declined the U.S. “15-point plan” with its “five conditions,” showing it has no intention of backing down under high pressure, and insists on linking sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz to the end of the war. There are fundamental disagreements in both sides’ core demands, and the outlook for U.S.-Iran negotiations remains highly uncertain. The risk of geopolitical conflict becoming long-term is increasing, and risk-off sentiment may continue to suppress overall risk appetite.

🎈March 25, the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the “Opinion on Accelerating the Establishment of a Long-Term Care Insurance System.” The goal is to, within about three years, basically establish a long-term care insurance system that fits China’s basic national conditions, covering all people, coordinating urban and rural areas, featuring fairness and uniformity, safety and standardized operations, and sustainability. The Opinion states clearly that the long-term care insurance premium rate will be uniformly controlled at around 0.3%.

Brief comment: The comprehensive establishment of the long-term care insurance system is a major institutional breakthrough in China’s social security system, directly addressing the caregiving difficulties of about 35 million disabled elderly people among the 320 million elderly population. Inclusive designs such as “no deductible threshold” will effectively ease the caregiving burden on families of disabled individuals. Policy tailwinds benefit sectors such as elderly care services, rehabilitation medical devices, and commercial insurance. At the same time, it may also create demand for specialized nursing services, age-friendly facility upgrades, and more. The relevant industry chain is expected to enter a long-term favorable cycle of prosperity. Going forward, it will be important to follow the rollout timetable for local supporting implementation details.

🎈March 25, the official website of the State Administration for Market Regulation reposted a commentary article by the Economic Daily titled “The Delivery Takeout Battle Should End,” which drew strong market attention. The article points out that after continuing for a year, the subsidy war among food delivery platforms has evolved into chaotic and involutionary competition, squeezing profits of catering merchants and disrupting market order. This is already the second important move by regulators in the short term targeting “involution-style” competition—on March 23, the Beijing Municipal Administration for Market Regulation, together with multiple departments, held talks with 12 platform companies and announced the first batch of issues found in the comprehensive rectification of “involution-style” competition.

Brief comment: Regulators have made consecutive moves to send a strong signal to “fight involution.” The food delivery industry may be leaving behind the era of brutal subsidies. From platform financial reports, the price war has led to Meituan’s 2025 forecast of a pre-loss of over 23 billion yuan and JD’s new business loss of 46.6 billion yuan, highlighting the unsustainability of the subsidy model. In the medium to long term, industry competition may shift from “burning money to chase scale” to “winning on efficiency.” Leading platforms with execution-focused moats and AI technology enablement are expected to restore profitability first. Going forward, watch the implementation and rollout of “anti-involution” policies and how the industry competitive landscape evolves.

👉Market Review

🎈March 26, the three major A-share indexes fell. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was 3889.08 points, down 1.09%; the Shenzhen Component Index was 13606.44 points, down 1.41%; the ChiNext Index was 3272.49 points, down 1.34%; and the STAR 100 Index was 1486.30 points, down 1.92%. Among Shenwan Level-1 industries, only coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, and banks rose, with gains of 0.59%, 0.47%, and 0.37% respectively; computer, non-bank financials, and communications led the declines, down 2.75%, 2.74%, and 2.35% respectively. 887 individual stocks rose, while 4291 individual stocks fell.

💰Fund Tracking

🎈The market’s trading value was 19571.32 billion yuan, down from the previous trading day. The balance of margin financing and securities lending (two-margin) closed yesterday at 26174.75 billion yuan, up from the previous trading day.

Data source: Eastmoney, as of March 26, 2026. Funds involve risks; invest prudently. Fund managers undertake to manage and use fund assets in accordance with the principles of honesty, trustworthiness, diligence, and responsibility, but do not guarantee that funds will generate profits, nor do they guarantee any returns. Past performance of a fund does not imply its future performance.

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责任编辑：江钰涵