Iran backs down, Bitcoin surges? Don’t be fooled—this is the deepest trap the market has set for you!

Just put down your phone, and isn’t the screen again full of green? Bitcoin has shot up to 68,000! Are those so-called experts in your social circle starting to shout: Bull market reboot! Target 100K!?

Hold on before rushing in to go all-in.

Today’s market, on the surface, looks like Iran backed down and stopped fighting, so the whole world is up. But as an old hand who’s been repeatedly burned in crypto, I see it clearly.

This script is so familiar, just like a scumbag telling you, “I’m just gonna hang around but not really commit”—all just tricks.

Can one piece of news send the market into a frenzy?

What’s the news? The Iranian president said that if security guarantees are provided, they’re willing to end the conflict.

See that? “If,” “willing”—these are just rumors not even close to a formal agreement, yet Nasdaq jumps 3% and Bitcoin instantly surges.

Do you think this is the market’s desire for peace? Come on! This is capital playing a game, using the situation as a pretext, a game of hot potato.

Oil prices fell, and the market says: “Oh, inflation expectations are coming back, good news!”

Gold prices rose, and the market says: “Oh, risk aversion is still here, gold can go up too!”

All kinds of good and bad reasons are being thrown at you—there’s always a reason.

But brothers, you need to stay alert. In the world of capital, bad news is a sickle, good news is an even bigger sickle.

The most heartbreaking fact—before you even get in, you’re already under the car.

Right now, Bitcoin is over $68,000, but on-chain data shows the average holding cost (realized price) for everyone is $54,286.

What does that mean? It means even at this level, the average holder is still making a 21% profit!

History tells us, what does a real bottom look like?

From June to October 2022, Bitcoin’s price fell below everyone’s cost basis, the entire network was losing money, nobody wanted to play anymore—you could pick up bloodied chips.

In 2020, on March 12, it crashed through the floor, even miners shut down their machines. Those who bought then were the true bottom-fishers.

And now? An average profit of 21%? Is that bottoming? No, that’s just handing over the chips to those still in profit!

The so-called buying opportunity now is like going on a blind date, and the other person says, “I don’t ask for much, just a house and a car.” Do you call that a good opportunity? That’s just the threshold!

The biggest trap is hidden in the details.

Let’s dig deeper.

Trump said he would end the war within three weeks and will make an important announcement tonight.

Morgan Stanley also entered the scene, launching a super-low fee Bitcoin ETF.

It looks all positive, right?

But have you thought about why exactly now?

Why does Trump want to end the war in three weeks? Because if it drags on, inflation will be hard to control, and he’ll lose votes in the upcoming election.

Why is Morgan Stanley entering now? Because they’re not here to do charity—they’re here to harvest.

It’s like in a casino, the dealer suddenly tells you: “The fight next door has stopped, everyone can play peacefully now!” and then hands you a newbie’s gift pack.

Are you the newbie who takes the gift, or the player the dealer is eyeing?

The harsh truth—what you’re really afraid of isn’t missing out, but being broke.

I know, many of you are already anxious reading this.

What if it really hits 100K? If I don’t buy now, I’ll miss out, right?

Everyone’s making money, I can’t just watch, can I?

This anxiety is more terrifying than losses.

Right now, the market looks calm on the surface, but underneath, there are currents swirling. Bitcoin has been ranging between 65,000 and 73,000 for how long? And the stock market? Jumping up and down with every news headline, like a hyperactive monkey.

This huge divergence itself is a risk. It’s telling you: big funds haven’t reached a consensus yet, they’re still watching, waiting for a more certain signal.

That signal could be a fake news “crash,” or a real positive after an agreement, turning into a negative once the hype dies down.

1. Don’t treat news as your meal—overeating it can give you diarrhea.

2. The market will never let you profit just because you want to. It will only give you a hard slap when you’re most afraid of missing out.

3. The current market is like chasing a girl who never gives a clear answer. You think her smile means love, but actually, she just needs someone to pay the bill.

The current $68,000 isn’t the bottom, at best it’s a halfway point.

On-chain data doesn’t show a full-scale loss situation, CB’s premium index is still falling, indicating Americans haven’t started buying wildly yet.

The real bottoming opportunity is either waiting for it to drop to $54,000 (everyone’s cost basis), putting you on the same starting line as the big players; or waiting for a violent breakout above $73,000 and stabilizing, so all technical analysts recognize the trend.

Until then, all the good news about Iran and Morgan Stanley entering are just illusions to keep you standing at high levels.

Stay steady, don’t be reckless. The money is in your hands—you are the boss. Jumping in now makes you someone else’s profit.