BitMart VIP Insights: March Cryptocurrency Market Review and Hotspot Analysis

TL, DR

• March macro conditions were overall bearish: the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and sent a hawkish signal, and sticky inflation, rising oil prices, and weakening employment reinforced concerns about “stagflation,” with expectations for rate cuts clearly pushed back; meanwhile, U.S. equities wobbled and weakened amid tariff back-and-forth and geopolitical risks, putting broad pressure on risk assets. Looking ahead to April, the market will continue to wrestle with inflation, the Non-Farm Payrolls report, and the policy path; although the crypto market has received some marginal support as regulatory clarity improves, it still faces macro and political pressure.
• In March, trading volume showed “impulsive spikes followed by rapid pullbacks,” with extreme up-and-down moves occurring multiple times but lacking persistence, indicating that money was driven mainly by short-term trading; the total market cap moved in a mild range, and after topping out in mid-month it fell back into the $2.45T–$2.50T band, with insufficient overall momentum.
• In March, both BTC and ETH spot ETF flows shifted from net outflows to net inflows, with asset size and prices rising in sync. Among them, ETH saw stronger fund reflows and price elasticity, reflecting a marginal restoration of risk appetite as capital moved to rebalance into higher-volatility assets. At the same time, total stablecoin supply shifted from contraction to mild expansion but remained clearly concentrated toward the top, suggesting that while new liquidity is returning to the market, the overall phase is still cautious repair rather than a broad-based risk-on expansion stage.
• In March, BTC traded in a wide range of $62,000–$74,000. Currently it is around $69,000–$71,000. Overall, it is between the $65,000–$67,000 support zone and the $72,000–$75,000 resistance zone; a directional breakout still needs macro conditions to cooperate. ETH performed relatively weaker, mainly ranging between $1,900–$2,200. In the near term, ETF inflows have slowed and the FOMC’s hawkish tone has suppressed the move up; a turnaround signal likely requires holding above $2,200. SOL was comparatively resilient on the downside, moving within $82–$97. Currently it is around $88–$92. Structurally, it maintains a range-bound pattern; in the short term, watch for a breakout above $95–$97 resistance and how it holds the $82 support.
• The SEC and CFTC jointly established a digital-asset classification framework, explicitly labeling 16 major assets including BTC and ETH as “digital commodities,” and introduced the “Token Safe Harbor” concept. This marks a significant easing of regulatory uncertainty and provides critical legal grounding for institutional entry. Meanwhile, BlackRock launched a stakable Ethereum ETF with distributable staking rewards (ETHB), pushing crypto ETFs from being just price instruments toward yield-generating assets. However, security incidents like Resolv also highlight that industry risk is shifting from on-chain vulnerabilities to off-chain infrastructure and private-key management, further raising the importance of security systems.
• April is set to become a key time window for crypto regulation and legislation. If the “CLARITY Act” can achieve a breakthrough at the committee stage and move toward a vote, together with the SEC/CFTC classification framework, it will help build a complete regulatory closed loop and greatly enhance policy certainty for institutional participation; otherwise, if progress is blocked, market sentiment may face intermittent pressure. At the same time, the Ethereum “Glamsterdam” upgrade entering a critical test phase, combined with expectations for an expansion of the staking ETF ecosystem, will provide support to ETH’s mid-term fundamentals and strengthen the long-term logic for institutional participation in the Ethereum network.

1, Macro perspective

Policy direction

On March 18, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC held its second policy meeting of the year. In line with expectations, it kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. What drew the most market attention was the dot plot and the hawkish wording used in Powell’s press conference. The dot plot showed that the median number of expected rate cuts within 2026 remained at 1, but disagreements among committee members over the rate-cut path expanded materially (some members even expected no rate cuts). Powell emphasized the nonlinear characteristics of the inflation decline process and issued warnings about the risk that tariffs and energy prices could keep inflation higher for longer. He made it clear that the policy committee is not in a hurry to take action and will remain cautiously on watch until inflation and employment data provide clear signals. The Federal Reserve raised its 2026 PCE inflation expectation to about 2.7%, higher than previously expected, further dampening market pricing for rapid rate cuts within the year. As a result, risk assets—including crypto—faced pressure in the late March period.

U.S. stock market performance

In March, the U.S. stock market showed an overall pattern of choppy downside movement, performing clearly worse than at the start of the year. In late February, the U.S. tightened its trade policy again. The market repeatedly debated uncertainty around tariff policy, and risk appetite faced temporary pressure. Entering March, geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran continued to heat up. Brent crude prices briefly broke above $100 per barrel, the highest level in recent years. Combined with recession warnings issued by multiple institutions, market sentiment deteriorated significantly. In mid-March, the S&P 500 retreated in stages from levels near the beginning-of-year highs, the VIX surged rapidly, reflecting that institutions shifted from tactical profit-taking to broader defensive deleveraging and risk reduction. Within the tech sector, performance continued to diverge. AI compute power and infrastructure were relatively resilient on the downside, while traditional software and fintech faced valuation re-rating pressure, leaving overall risk premia at elevated levels.

Inflation data

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the February 2026 CPI data on March 11: CPI increased 2.4% year over year, unchanged from January, and rose 0.3% month over month. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) grew 2.5% year over year and increased 0.2% month over month—both in line with market expectations. Overall, inflation remained above the Fed’s 2% target but did not move higher further. Worth noting is that services inflation persistence remains. Meanwhile, the conflict in the Middle East drove crude oil prices up rapidly; Brent crude broke above $100, and there is renewed upside pressure on energy-side inflation. Therefore, at the Fed’s March FOMC meeting, the Fed raised its inflation forecast, acknowledging that “the last mile” task is more challenging than expected. The need to keep interest rates elevated in the near term rose further.

Employment data

The February 2026 Non-Farm Payrolls report for the U.S., released in early March by the U.S. Department of Labor, showed that non-farm payroll employment unexpectedly declined by about 90,000, a negative print rarely seen since the pandemic and significantly weaker than market expectations. The unemployment rate rose to about 4.4%, and the labor force participation rate edged down. The employment decline was mainly influenced by factors such as strikes, fluctuations in government departments, and slowing corporate hiring. The unexpected weakening in the labor market provided some support for rate-cut expectations, but the coexistence of inflation persistence and employment deterioration produced “stagflation-style” signals, putting the Fed in a dilemma: rate cuts could stoke inflation, while standing pat could worsen economic downside. Market expectations for the timing of the first rate cut this year have been pushed back to the second half by a large proportion.

Political factors

In March, multiple uncertainties at the political and policy levels intertwined and had a significant impact on market sentiment. U.S. trade policy continued to swing back and forth, and uncertainty about tariff expectations created disruptions to corporate earnings and supply chains. At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran became the biggest exogenous risk in this period. Oil prices breaking above $100 directly lifted inflation expectations and weighed on consumer confidence. In the crypto space, regulators are still progressing discussions on asset classification and the legislative framework. The market remains somewhat optimistic about the long-term compliance process, but in the near term macro factors still dominate pricing. Gold prices rose further during the period and stayed near historical highs, reflecting strong ongoing safe-haven demand. Overall, geopolitical risk, tariff uncertainty, and the FOMC’s hawkish stance formed three layers of pressure, and political factors have, on balance, weighed on crypto market sentiment.

Outlook for next month

Looking ahead to April, the market will focus on March CPI and PCE inflation data and the March Non-Farm Payrolls report, as these will directly affect the Fed’s policy judgment at the May FOMC meeting. Of note, the weakening in February employment combined with oil prices breaking above $100 has turned “stagflation” concerns into the market’s core narrative. If March data sustains this combination, risk assets will likely face continued pressure. The direction of U.S.–Iran geopolitical developments is also a key variable for April. If the situation escalates further, the rise in oil prices will reinforce inflation persistence and intensify market volatility. In addition, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May 2026, and uncertainty about his successor will also gradually become a key focus for the market. For crypto assets, the core variables to watch remain regulatory and legislative progress (such as the pace of advancing the CLARITY Act) and BTC spot ETF fund flows. Whether BTC can hold key support levels and maintain net inflows will determine the direction of the next phase of the market.

2, Crypto market overview

Coin/asset data analysis

Trading volume & daily growth rate

According to CoinGecko data, in March the overall crypto market trading volume showed a clear “impulsive spike followed by rapid pullback” pattern, with volatility much higher than in February. From the start of the month to March 4, volume quickly expanded to a phase high (around the $170B range), then declined rapidly. In mid-March, volume surged again under market sentiment and event-driven forces. On March 16, the single-day gain reached 101%, but persistence remained insufficient; it then returned to a low-volume range. In terms of timing, the surge in trading volume was highly concentrated in short-term sentiment catalysts or event shock windows (such as amplified market volatility or disruptions from on-chain/security events). For the rest of the time, trading mostly sat at middle-to-low levels, indicating that capital was mainly driven by short-term trading and transaction-led momentum, while incremental funds over the medium to long term were still missing. In the second half of the month, trading volume weakened further and came with multiple instances of sharp negative growth (such as -45% and -24%), and market activity declined at the margin. Overall, while March showed stronger burst-like volume expansion than February at certain points in time, the volume lacked continuity. The market still has not formed a stable volume-expansion trend, and structurally and event-driven trading remains dominant.

Total market cap & daily growth amount

According to CoinGecko data, in March the total market cap of the crypto market overall followed a structure of “rising with volatility, then falling back and stabilizing.” At the beginning of the month, market cap fluctuated around about $2.3T; then it gradually repaired and rose to a phase high in mid-March (around $2.63T). During this period, daily gains were relatively mild, with most fluctuations staying within ±3%, showing that while the market repaired, sentiment was still cautious. Compared with February, March market cap activity was steadier and did not see extreme large single-day pullbacks, indicating that systemic risk was temporarily alleviated in stages. However, after a mid-month peak, market cap fell back again, repeatedly oscillating in the $2.45T–$2.50T range, with growth momentum weakening. Overall, the current market is in a post-repair consolidation phase; it lacks trend-following upside momentum, and risk appetite remains in the process of repair. The subsequent direction still depends on improving macro liquidity, continued inflows into ETFs, and further policy catalysts.

3, On-chain data analysis

Analysis of BTC and ETH ETF inflows and outflows

In March, spot BTC ETF flows strengthened noticeably, showing a turning point from net outflows to net inflows. In the month, BTC spot ETFs achieved net inflows of about $8.44B. Total net assets rose from about $81.3B on February 24 to $89.74B, a month-over-month increase of about 10.3%. On the price front, BTC rose from roughly $64,068 at the start of the month to $67,842, a gain of about 5.8%. Overall, the reflow of ETF funds forming a positive feedback loop with price recovery indicates that institutional risk appetite has been repaired to some extent. Compared with February’s concentrated outflows, March looked more like a staged reallocation process. On one hand, marginal improvement in macro liquidity eased pressure on risk assets. On the other hand, after BTC’s sharp drawdown earlier, the valuation became more attractive, prompting institutions to rebuild exposure. Therefore, it shows “funds returning + price stabilizing” repair characteristics.

In March, spot ETH ETFs also improved materially, with funds switching from outflows to inflows. In the month, ETH spot ETFs posted net inflows of about $1.75B. Total net assets grew from about $10.47B to $12.22B, up 16.7% month over month. ETH price rose from $1,852 to $2,052, up about 10.7%. From the performance angle, ETH’s fund reflow magnitude and price elasticity both exceeded BTC, reflecting that during the marginal warm-up in risk appetite, capital was more inclined to replenish higher-volatility assets. February was the asset that was primarily reduced in priority. In March, ETH became the priority repair target. However, its overall size still had not recovered back to prior peak levels, suggesting institutions are currently doing more tactical replenishment rather than cautiously committing to longer-term positioning.

Analysis of stablecoin inflows and outflows

For stablecoins, in March total circulating supply increased from about $278.668B to $283.611B, a month-over-month growth of about 1.7%. It moved from a slight contraction in February to mild expansion, indicating a marginal improvement in market liquidity. Structurally, USDT edged up by about 0.5%, continuing to maintain its dominant position. USDC grew by about 5.9%, the most notable increase, reflecting that compliant stablecoins were more favored during the reflow stage. DAI grew by about 3.6% and performed relatively steadily. Meanwhile, USDE, PYUSD, and USD1 fell by about 2.9%, 0.8%, and 10% respectively. Among them, USD1 contracted the most, implying that demand for certain non-mainstream or ecosystem-specific stablecoins continued to face pressure. Overall, although stablecoins expanded, the funds clearly concentrated toward the top, and structural differentiation further intensified.

In general, March displayed a typical “repair” profile: both BTC and ETH spot ETFs shifted from net outflows to net inflows, with asset size and prices rising together; total stablecoin supply shifted from contraction to expansion, confirming that new funds returned to the market. But from a structural perspective, funds still concentrated in major assets and major stablecoins, indicating that the market is still in a cautious repair phase of risk appetite rebounding. This is closer to a capital-replenishment-driven episodic repair stage rather than a broad, trend-based uptrend.

4, Price analysis of major coins

Bitcoin (BTC) price analysis

In March, Bitcoin traded with wide range volatility, moving between $62,000 and $74,000. After BTC’s net outflow situation over five weeks ended on February 25, it bounced short term to around $69,000 and then entered a range consolidation phase. The main resistance was concentrated at $72,000–$75,000, where the price touched multiple times during the month but failed to break through effectively. Key support on the downside concentrated in the $65,000–$67,000 range. During the month it briefly tested the $63,000–$64,000 zone before quickly rebounding. After the hawkish FOMC messaging on March 18, BTC dropped about 5% on the day, retesting the $67,000–$68,000 support. As of March 27, it was around $69,000–$71,000, still trading within the range. If it can effectively break above $74,000 and hold, it could open a repair move toward $78,000–$82,000. If it fails to hold $65,000, it may further probe the $60,000–$62,000 mid-term support. Overall, Bitcoin is currently in a range-bound structure, with $65,000–$67,000 as the primary support and $72,000–$75,000 as the near-term resistance zone. A directional breakout signal still requires improvement in the macro environment to align.

Ethereum (ETH) price analysis

In March, Ethereum continued a choppy but relatively weak pattern, performing worse than Bitcoin overall. After rebounding near $2,050 at the end of February, ETH entered range consolidation, trading mainly in the $1,900–$2,200 band. As of March 27, it was around $2,100–$2,200. The key resistance above is first concentrated in the $2,250–$2,350 zone. This area corresponds to short-term dynamic moving averages and a prior dense trading region, and it repeatedly capped upward moves. On the downside, $1,900–$2,000 is an important support zone; if it breaks, ETH could further test the $1,700–$1,800 mid-term key support. After the hawkish signal from the March 18 FOMC, ETH faced near-term pressure; ETF inflows slowed in stages, further suppressing rebound momentum. Whether it can gradually stand above $2,200 and see volume pick up will be an important indicator for judging whether the trend can shift from weak to strong. The near-term technical setup remains neutral-to-weak.

Solana (SOL) price analysis

In March, Solana’s overall performance was relatively steady, trading within the $82–$97 range and showing a degree of resilience relative to BTC and ETH. As of March 27, SOL was around $88–$92, fluctuating mildly compared with late February. Near-term support is mainly concentrated in the $82–$85 range, which has repeatedly played a “floor” role recently. The $95–$97 area is the key resistance zone, corresponding to the mid-March phase high; a breakout needs stronger volume confirmation. If SOL can hold effectively above $90 and break out beyond $97 with volume, it could open a repair move toward $100–$105. Conversely, if it loses $82, it may further probe mid-term support near $75–$78. Overall, SOL’s volatility remains high; until macro risk appetite improves, price may continue to search for a directional breakout within the $82–$97 range.

5, Hot events this month

SEC/CFTC jointly release a clarification on crypto asset classification; 16 assets officially recognized as “digital commodities”

On March 17, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) jointly released a 68-page crypto asset classification clarification document, formally establishing a systematic regulatory classification framework for the digital-asset market. The document categorizes 16 major crypto assets—BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, Cardano, Chainlink, Avalanche, Polkadot, Stellar, Hedera, Litecoin, Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, Tezos, Bitcoin Cash, and Aptos—as “digital commodities” under CFTC regulatory jurisdiction, clearly stating that they are not securities. The overall framework divides digital assets into five categories: digital commodities, digital collectibles, digital tools, stablecoins, and digital securities. Only digital securities—i.e., tokenized versions of traditional financial instruments—continue to be comprehensively regulated by the SEC.

Market participants viewed this joint classification clarification as one of the most important regulatory breakthroughs in the history of the crypto industry. On the same day, SEC Chair Paul Atkins announced the “Token Safe Harbor” safe-harbor concept in a speech, providing a transitional period compliance protection space for protocols that have not yet achieved full decentralization. After the news was released, major crypto assets reacted positively. Compliance teams at mainstream institutions quickly reassessed the configurability of digital assets. Several asset management firms said they will accelerate the process of including BTC, ETH, and SOL into their investment portfolios. Analysts generally believe that this dual-institution joint action ended years of regulatory ambiguity, clearing the most critical legal obstacles for the next wave of institutional entry.

BlackRock launches a staked Ethereum ETF (ETHB); spot ETFs enter the yield era

On March 12, BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, officially listed the iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHB) on Nasdaq. It became the first spot Ethereum ETF in the U.S. that allows investors to receive distributed Ethereum staking rewards. The product opened with seed assets of about $107M, had about $15.5M in trading volume on its first day, and at the time of listing had already completed on-chain staking of about 80% of its held ETH. The targeted staking ratio would be maintained between 70% and 95%. For reward distribution, ETHB allocates about 82% of staking rewards to holders in monthly form. The fee rate is 0.25% (the first $2.5B scale received a temporary 0.12% discount). It combines two attributes: ETH price exposure and on-chain yield. The key difference from traditional spot ETH ETFs (such as BlackRock’s ETHA) is that ETHB is a “yield-bearing ETF,” introducing Ethereum’s PoS staking mechanism into a compliant traditional fund structure for the first time.

The approval and listing of ETHB is a direct outcome of a shift in U.S. crypto regulatory conditions. Previously, former SEC Chair Gensler required that all submitted Ethereum ETF applications strip out staking functionality. Under the current chair Paul Atkins, the SEC approved ETHB’s staking structure without objection. At the same time, the GENIUS Act’s enactment also cleared compliance roadblocks for yield-oriented crypto products. From an impact perspective, the launch of ETHB signals that U.S. spot crypto ETFs are shifting from “pure price tools” to “yield-generating tools,” directly competing with traditional income assets such as bonds and REITs. Analysts noted that if ETHB scales quickly, it will provide sustainable staking-demand support for the Ethereum network and encourage more asset management firms to apply for similar products, opening a new entry point for institutional participation in Ethereum’s ecosystem.

Resolv Labs suffers a private-key attack; crypto security incidents are frequent

On March 22, the decentralized yield stablecoin protocol Resolv Labs experienced a major security incident. The attacker gained access to privileged private keys stored in AWS KMS by infiltrating its cloud infrastructure. They then bypassed the normal minting mechanism to illegally mint approximately 80M USR stablecoins with very low collateral. In a short period, they cashed out about $25M through the Curve liquidity pool, causing the USR price to plunge from $1 to $0.025 in just 17 minutes. This incident was not caused by an on-chain smart contract vulnerability. Instead, it stemmed from a failure of off-chain key management and infrastructure security, highlighting the重大 risk of concentrating core private keys in a single cloud-service environment.

From a broader perspective, the Resolv incident is not an isolated case. Recently, multiple security incidents—including a reentrancy attack suffered by Solv Protocol—show that crypto industry attack patterns are undergoing a structural shift: the share of traditional smart contract vulnerabilities is declining, while “Web2 attack vectors” such as private key leakage, cloud service intrusion, and social engineering have become mainstream, accounting for over 76% of stolen funds sources. Combined with the historically high loss level of around $17B in 2025 and the trend of frequent major incidents, the industry has entered a new phase where “off-chain security sets the ceiling.” DeFi protocols must elevate multi-party signatures, hardware security modules, and other key management and overall operational security systems to the same level of importance as on-chain audits.

6, Outlook for next month

The CLARITY Act legislative push; April may become the year’s key window

April will be the decisive node for whether the CLARITY Act can be implemented in 2026. Galaxy Digital’s research team explicitly stated that if the bill cannot complete the committee process before April, the probability of passage within the year will be “extremely low.” The core controversy in the bill is whether stablecoins can pay market-based interest. The banking industry argues for strict limits on passive income, while the crypto industry is trying to preserve room for compliant yield. On March 10, senators announced a compromise negotiation on this clause. Treasury Secretary Bessent released signals that stablecoin legislation may be signed into law in the spring of 2026. If negotiations succeed in April and the bill advances to a full-vote stage, it will—together with the SEC/CFTC joint classification from March 17—form a complete closed loop for this round of historic crypto regulatory breakthroughs, providing unprecedented policy certainty for institutional allocations. If legislative timing lags again, the “bearish expectation reset” effect could temporarily weigh on market sentiment.

Ethereum “Glamsterdam” upgrade accelerates; staking ETF ecosystem expands faster

The Ethereum “Glamsterdam” upgrade has been listed by the foundation as a core priority task in the first half of 2026, targeting a window around June. In April, it will enter a critical stage of testnet validation. This upgrade is the largest technical iteration Ethereum has made since “The Merge.” Its core goals include: raising the Gas limit per block from 60,000,000 to 200,000,000; targeting network throughput of 10,000 TPS (about 10 times current levels); reducing Gas costs for complex smart contracts by about 78.6%; and, with parallel transaction processing and an on-chain block construction mechanism, significantly optimizing the structure of MEV. If the core EIPs on the testnet progress smoothly in April, it will significantly strengthen expectations for ETH’s mid-term ecosystem and provide fundamental support for the ETH price, which has recently been relatively weak. In the staking ETF layer, after ETHB’s listing, application reviews for similar products from institutions such as Franklin Templeton and Grayscale will enter the SEC review window. In April, there may be approval updates for follow-on products, further expanding the scale and market influence of the staking ETF ecosystem and providing ongoing staking-demand support for the Ethereum network.

Powell’s term ends; Waller takes over—monetary policy continuity in question

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s term will officially end on May 15, 2026. Trump nominated, on January 30, Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Waller to take over. If he completes the Senate confirmation process successfully, Waller will officially take office in May. This personnel transition will enter the final political bargaining window in April, and the timing of the Senate confirmation vote and the wording used will be closely interpreted by the market.

Waller’s policy stance is a double-edged sword for the crypto market. Historically, he has been labeled “hawkish,” advocating for higher real interest rates and compressing the Fed’s balance sheet. If that stance is delivered in policy, it would weigh on risk assets such as Bitcoin. But his more recent comments have softened: he has cited AI-driven productivity gains that could bring structural disinflation, creating room for rate cuts, aligning with Trump’s preference for lower rates. On crypto attitudes, Waller is somewhat contradictory. He publicly said crypto is “software masquerading as money” and characterized BTC’s rise as an “opportunistic bubble symptom” caused by loose monetary policy. On the other hand, he has a personal track record of investing in crypto startup companies and supports central banks’ participation in the digital currency space; analysts generally describe him as “pragmatic rather than hostile.”

For the crypto market, Powell stepping down eliminates a known policy stability anchor, while Waller represents a larger uncertainty premium. If, during the April confirmation hearing, Waller releases a more dovish signal, the market may price in rate-cut expectations for the second half of 2026 earlier, which would be supportive for crypto assets. If his hawkish stance is strengthened, combined with today’s inflation persistence and oil-price pressure, it would create a double drag on risk appetite. This personnel variable, together with the CLARITY Act legislative window and macro data, forms one of the three core focal points to watch for the crypto market in April.