Once the Strait of Hormuz encounters an incident, will oil prices skyrocket directly?

The biggest concern in the market now is not what has already happened, but what might happen—👉 something that hasn't occurred yet but could occur.
For example: the Strait of Hormuz.
About 20% of global oil transportation passes through here. If a problem arises—👉 it won't just be a rise, but a "jump" in prices.
But here's the key point:
👉 Risks of this level usually don't happen easily.
Because once a blockade occurs, the impact isn't just on one country but on the entire global energy system.
In other words:
Everyone is "testing the waters on the edge," but no one dares to "really throw the table."
So the current logic for oil prices is:
* Small conflicts → small increase
* Escalating conflicts → rapid increase
* Full blockade → sharp surge (but with low probability)
Conclusion:
👉 The premise for oil prices to go wild is the occurrence of extreme events.
📌 Interactive comment:
If the Strait of Hormuz is truly blocked, what do you think the oil price will reach? 150 or 200? 👇#创作者冲榜