Long-term outlook on cryptocurrencies, U.S. stocks, and commodities

$BTC Currently, we are still in a macro downward cycle, and the bear market has been ongoing for about half a year. Based on past patterns, it usually takes another 4 to 6 months to truly bottom out, with the most likely time being in the fourth quarter, which is quite similar to previous cycles.
I personally look at long-term buy signals to determine if the bottom has been reached, but so far, none of these signals have appeared. This includes the previously discussed halving cycle, which still has no data to prove that this round has become invalid or that the bottom will come early. Especially in the current macro environment, trying to anticipate an early bull run is quite challenging.

U.S. stocks are also following the original script. If we refer to historical patterns, in mid-term election years, the average decline in the U.S. stock market is about 15%. So, if the market continues downward, it wouldn't be surprising. Once the S&P 500 hits around 6000, I will start considering some long-term positions. If it drops further, I will gradually add to my positions in batches.

Commodities are generally weak, mainly because the dollar is too strong. When the dollar is strong, commodities tend to suffer, which is an old rule. Besides energy, precious metals are also quite weak. The future direction of this sector largely depends on the situation in the Middle East. If oil prices are pushed higher, it could actually suppress market performance in the medium term.

Ultimately, the direction of financial markets depends on monetary policy. Only when tightening measures truly push the economy into trouble will the market start to preemptively shift towards easing, meaning a re-anticipation of global central banks loosening liquidity.

However, this process won't happen immediately; it will take at least a few more months. For now, cryptocurrencies, U.S. stocks, and commodities can only be endured gradually.