4.1 Afternoon XAU Market Analysis

From the market perspective, signals of ceasefire from Trump and the Iranian president have been released successively, and the changing risk sentiment in the Middle East has driven gold prices to rebound, surging over $150 intraday. The daily chart shows three consecutive bullish days, but the monthly chart still records the worst performance since October 2008.

Today’s morning session saw gold continue its overnight rally, reaching the 4700 level before pulling back, currently around 4680. The strong close overnight and the gap-up at the open indicate that the morning rally point is a key turning point for the day; above it, the trend is relatively strong. However, this round of rally is a rebound correction after a sharp decline, not a one-sided strong move, so caution is advised against chasing high. If the price breaks below the rally point, treat it as a consolidation with a slight bullish bias, and watch for the 61.8% retracement level and double bottom buy opportunities.

The resistance level above is 4735, which is a double top formed after the previous sharp decline and is a critical level for aggressive shorts. Wait for European session resistance before considering short positions during the US session. If the European session closes above 4735 with a strong bullish move, consider a pullback to reduce short positions; during the US session, look for a pullback between 18-20 to re-enter long positions. The area above 4700 has entered the previous reduction zone, so be alert to selling pressure.

Trading Suggestions

Short near 4730-4735, targeting 4650✓, if broken, continue to watch 4600.
If it breaks above 4735, look for a pullback to around 4700 to go long, targeting 4780✓$BTC $ETH $XAUT