18-Year Cycle?

Fred Harrison has studied land prices, credit growth, and economic cycles since the 19th century. He observed that real estate prices and credit flows move in a fairly stable 17–18-year cycle, despite changes in politics, technology, or wars.
The cycle does not occur randomly but stems from speculative psychology + credit leverage in the real estate sector (land is the "hardest" asset, reacts slowly but has a ripple effect on the entire economy).
Harrison accurately predicted:
- The 1990–1991 crisis (from the mid-1980s).
- The 2008 crisis (predicted in 1997, confirmed in 2005 that real estate would "collapse in 3 years").
He continues to forecast that the cycle peak and the next crisis will occur in 2026.
Detailed 4-phase structure of the 18-year cycle
1. Recovery (7 years)
Land prices hit bottom after the crisis, interest rates are low, credit expands again. The economy gradually stabilizes, confidence recovers.
2. Growth (5-6 years)
Low interest rates, high confidence, rapid increase in property prices, real estate companies expand. Strong growth, investment boom.
3. Euphoria/Bubble (3-4 years)
Speculation spreads, high credit leverage, real estate prices soar "beyond" actual value. Asset bubble, systemic risks increase.
4. Collapse (1-2 years)
Interest rates rise or credit tightens → market crashes, prices plummet, bad debts explode. Credit crisis, spreads to stocks and the entire economy.
Cycle turning point: Usually occurs around the 7th–8th year (e.g., 1966, 1982, 2001, 2022).
Related to major crises: US financial shocks often occur at the end of the Expansion/Boom phase (1929, 1973, 1987, 2000, 2008).
History has proven:
1972: Oil crisis + currency shock
1990: Savings & Loan crisis
2008: Global financial crisis
2026: ?
What to watch out for?
- For investors: The cycle helps identify the "golden phase" (end of recovery) and avoid the "final bubble phase" (high risk). Currently (2026) many believe we are at the end of the bubble or the beginning of a crash.
- For Mỹ: The market lags 2–3 years behind the US (bottom in 2013 after 2008, euphoria in 2020–2021, slowdown in 2022–2023). Currently entering a late bubble phase → caution with real estate credit leverage.
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Warning: This is a personal opinion, not financial advice or an attempt to solicit individual or collective investment.
Please be cautious with your decisions in the market.
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