#创作者冲榜 Trump and the Iranian president signal a ceasefire! Gold prices surge by $156

On Tuesday, March 31, (, spot gold prices soared over 3%, marking the third consecutive day of gains. Both U.S. President Trump and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi have issued signals of a ceasefire, which has driven gold prices higher. Additionally, the decline in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields has supported gold prices.
Spot gold closed Tuesday up $156.15, a 3.46% increase, at $4,666.83 per ounce.
FXStreet analyst Christian Borjon Valencia pointed out that easing war concerns boosted demand, with gold prices surging 3% on Tuesday. Previously, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi)Masoud Pezeshkian( hinted that the regime is ready to end the war.
Furthermore, falling U.S. Treasury yields and a softer dollar also provided strong support for gold prices.
Peter Grant, Vice President and Senior Precious Metals Strategist at Zaner Metals, said, “The current rally in gold is encouraging, as market optimism about easing Middle East tensions is growing. However, to establish a sustained upward trend, we need to see more robust gains.” Grant added, “In the long term, the fundamental trend for gold remains bullish, supported by key factors such as de-dollarization and central bank buying.”
The Wall Street Journal, citing government officials, reported that U.S. President Donald Trump) is willing to end military actions against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains under blockade. Due to concerns that Middle East conflict could push oil prices higher and fuel inflation, markets are reassessing Federal Reserve rate outlooks, leading to an 11.8% plunge in March spot gold prices. While gold is typically used to hedge against uncertainty and inflation, rising interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold. BMI maintains its forecast of an average gold price of $4,600 per ounce in 2026, while Goldman Sachs predicts gold could reach $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026.
Trump and the Iranian president both signal a ceasefire. The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that U.S. officials revealed that President Trump told his aides he is willing to end U.S. military actions against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. This move could prolong Tehran’s firm control over the waterway and delay the complex process of reopening the strait to a later time. The report noted that recently, Trump and his aides assessed that forcibly opening this strategic passage would extend conflict beyond the four to six-week timeline he has set. The WSJ reported that Trump has decided that the U.S. should aim to weaken Iran’s navy and missile stockpiles gradually, ending current hostilities while applying diplomatic pressure on Iran to restore free trade. Officials said if this strategy fails, Washington will pressure European and Gulf allies to lead efforts to reopen the strait. They added that Trump could also opt for a military solution, but this is not his current priority.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said on Tuesday local time that Iran has the “necessary willingness” to end the war, provided the other side meets Iran’s demands, especially guarantees of non-aggression. According to Iran’s Mehr News Agency, Raisi stated during a phone call with European Council President Charles Michel that a normalizing solution involves stopping U.S. and Israeli aggressive attacks. Raisi reiterated that Iran has never sought escalation or war at any stage and “has the necessary willingness to end this war.” FXStreet analyst Christian Borjon Valencia noted that speculation about a possible easing of tensions has prompted traders to buy gold, while falling U.S. Treasury yields further boosted gold prices. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell 4 basis points to 4.31%, weakening the dollar; the dollar index(DXY) declined 0.58% to 99.91. When the dollar strengthens, gold priced in dollars becomes more expensive for investors holding other currencies.
Aside from geopolitical factors, U.S. data shows the labor market is weakening, as reflected in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey(JOLTS). In February, job openings fell to 6.882 million, down from 7.24 million and below the market expectation of 6.92 million.
Gold trading analysis: Valencia said that gold has successfully broken above the key resistance at the 100-day simple moving average(SMA) of $4,617. The Relative Strength Index(RSI) indicates that as the indicator approaches neutral levels and trends upward, bullish momentum is strengthening.
Valencia stated that if gold breaks through the $4,700 per ounce level, the next resistance will be at $4,800, followed by the 20-day simple moving average at $4,820. Once it surpasses $4,900, attention will turn to the 50-day simple moving average at $4,952. He added that if gold fails to stay above $4,600, it could retest the March 26 intraday low of $4,351. If this low is broken, there will be little significant support below, and gold could head toward the 200-day simple moving average at $4,106.