April's good start: BTC surges to 68,500, Ethereum holds at 2,000, AI sector soars 10% in a single day

On the first day of April, the market handed out a bullish candle.

Last night, BTC spiked as high as $68,589. The immediate catalyst was reports that the situation between the U.S. and Iran may be cooling off, which briefly revived market risk appetite. In March, it closed around 67,800; over the whole month it traded in a broad $65k to $72k range. In the final days of the month, it sold off and churned downward—many people got shaken out of their positions. Can April be easier to trade? Let’s look at a few things.

On the U.S.-Iran front, it had long been the hidden bomb weighing on the market: oil prices surged along with it, and inflation expectations rose too. Last night, news came out that things might be warming down, and BTC immediately printed a move higher. But price action driven by headlines like this comes fast and also fades fast—don’t count on geopolitical tailwinds holding up for the entire month. What truly determines direction is the Federal Reserve and liquidity conditions.

As for Ethereum, price has been ranging between 2,070 and 2,105, holding the psychological 2,000 level. ETH next has the Glamsterdam upgrade going through the final testnet stage, with an expected mainnet launch in June. Institutional activity hasn’t stopped either—more and more staking-based ETF products are appearing. But for ETH to genuinely strengthen, it needs daily closes to hold above 2,200. As long as that level doesn’t break, it’s still mostly a range. If it breaks below 2,000, things get dangerous; the downside could potentially extend to 1,350.

The most eye-catching sector today is AI tokens. After the rally in late March, the total market cap of the AI track has already broken through $19 billion, with a single-day gain of over 10%. This sector has been hot since last year, and whenever the market rebounds, it always charges at the front. Just be mindful that AI tokens are far more volatile than mainstream coins: they rally hard and also drop hard, so chasing higher prices should be done carefully.

A few other items worth watching. Today, SUI unlocked about 42.9 million tokens from community reserves, worth $40 million. Large-scale unlocks often bring sell pressure—whether SUI can hold up today is a key point. The U.S. CLARITY bill is expected to be revised in the Senate Banking Committee in mid-April; if it passes, it would be a major regulatory breakthrough for the crypto industry and likely give a noticeable boost to market sentiment. Solana isn’t having an easy time: DEX trading volume has been steadily declining, and the price is testing a key support level around $80. If that level can’t be defended, it may slip below $70.

In terms of market data, above BTC, 69,947 is a liquidation-dense zone for short positions, with $1.36 billion buried there. Below, 63,377 also has large buy orders stacked—more than $1.26 billion. Historically, April has been one of BTC’s best months, with an average historical return rate of 33.4%. But this year’s January and February both broke historical patterns and posted negative returns, so the reference value of “historical规律” is limited—don’t treat it as faith.

There’s a lot to keep an eye on in April: the direction of the U.S.-Iran situation, progress on the CLARITY bill, Powell’s successor after May’s term expiration, and the implementation of the U.S. reciprocal tariffs on April 2. Each of them could become a trigger for short-term market action.

In the end, April’s start looks promising—but whether it can continue still depends on whether follow-through liquidity keeps showing up. The fear index has been slowly repairing from 11. The market is moving out of extreme fear. This phase is suitable for gradual positioning, not for going all-in at once.