Been diving into some old market analysis from 2020, and it's wild to look back at those early btc price prediction 2021 forecasts. Remember when everyone was debating whether Bitcoin could actually hit six figures?

There was this analyst PlanB who made some pretty bold calls back then using the Stock-to-Flow model. The idea was applying precious metals pricing formulas to Bitcoin - basically looking at scarcity ratios to project future value. His btc price prediction suggested $26K by end of 2021, $35K by 2022, and $50K by 2023, building toward $100K around the 2024 halving.

What's interesting is the methodology. The S2F model looked at Bitcoin halvings as critical inflection points. After May 2020's third halving, the theory suggested we'd see major appreciation over the following years. Historical patterns from previous halvings did show price surges, so there was actual precedent behind these predictions.

Looking at how things actually played out - Bitcoin did breach $100K eventually (hit around $69K in late 2021), though the exact timeline and magnitude had variations. The 2021 price prediction models got the general direction right but market dynamics are always messier than formulas suggest.

Current BTC is trading around $68.19K with +2.14% 24h movement. The halvings still matter for supply dynamics, but the market's evolved way beyond simple S2F calculations. Interesting to see how those 2020-era btc price prediction frameworks held up against actual market behavior over five years.