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Just stumbled upon this fascinating historical market theory that's been circulating again, and honestly, it's worth paying attention to. Back in 1875, an Ohio farmer named Samuel Benner analyzed decades of economic patterns and came up with a cyclical model for when to make money in markets. The guy basically identified three repeating periods that supposedly govern financial movements.
The core idea is pretty straightforward: there are specific periods when to make money by buying, specific periods when to make money by selling, and periods when you should basically stay out of the way. According to Benner's analysis, these cycles repeat with rough consistency.
He identified years of financial panic and crashes that tend to recur roughly every 16-18 years. Years like 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019 fit this pattern. The theory suggests these are years to be cautious, not the ideal periods when to make money through aggressive positioning.
Then there are the prosperity years, typically spaced 9-11 years apart. These include 1926, 1935, 1945, 1955, 1962, 1972, and so on. Benner believed these were the actual periods when to make money by selling your positions at peak valuations. The list goes 1998, 2007, 2016, and supposedly 2026 is shaping up to be another one of these peaks.
The third category is what Benner called the buying years, occurring roughly every 7-10 years. 1924, 1931, 1942, 1951, 1958, 1969, 1978, 1985, 1995, 2006, 2011, 2023 were marked as opportunities to accumulate. The theory suggests 2030 and 2041 would follow this pattern.
The practical framework is almost too simple: buy during the recession/low-price years, hold through the good times, then sell when prosperity peaks. Rinse and repeat. What's wild is how this 150-year-old framework keeps getting referenced whenever people try to time markets.
Now here's where it gets interesting for current positioning. If you follow Benner's cycles, we're supposedly entering a transition phase right now in 2026. According to the model, this could be one of those prosperity peaks where you'd want to consider taking profits. Then 2035 supposedly marks another critical inflection point where panic cycles and prosperity cycles align, suggesting potential volatility ahead.
Obviously, this is a historical curiosity more than gospel truth, but the cyclical thinking behind it does reflect something real about market psychology and economic patterns. Whether you're watching traditional markets or crypto cycles, understanding these historical frameworks can help contextualize where we might be in larger market rhythms. The periods when to make money aren't random, and sometimes looking at patterns from a century ago reminds us that markets move in waves, not straight lines.