Trump is now fighting for the US stock market. Since taking office, he can ignore other issues, but he cannot let the US stocks fall because that’s his face and his biggest leverage for re-election.

So you’ll see him often use bluster to defend the market. Today, he made a move—insisting that indirect negotiations with Iran are progressing smoothly and that an agreement is likely to be reached soon.

However, based on the information leaked, it’s just diplomats from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey passing messages between the US and Iran, telling each side their respective conditions. The media then exaggerated this as direct US-Iran talks.

You know Trump’s style—he always blows things out of proportion, and anyway, he doesn’t have to pay taxes.

The conditions from both sides are too far apart; a deal is impossible. Iran wants sanctions lifted and legal channels for oil exports, while the US demands Iran completely abandon its nuclear program and stop supporting regional proxies.

Their bottom lines are worlds apart—no way they can negotiate just through a few intermediaries. It’s probably going to take a real face-to-face confrontation.

That’s why Trump is now hinting at controlling Iran’s oil while also saying negotiations are going well—he looks like he’s losing it. It’s a classic “both want and don’t want” dilemma—wanting to appear tough but not really crashing the market. Anyway, he doesn’t have to pay taxes.