$ETH 4-Hour Short-Term Trading Watchlist

I. Core Basic Parameters (Fixed)

Current Asset: ETH/USDT Perpetual Contract
Cycle: 4-hour timeframe
Current Price: 2063.56 USDT
Bollinger Bands (20,2) Key Levels: Upper Band 2084.26, Middle Band 2026.69, Lower Band 1969.12
24-Hour Key Volatility Range: 2011.25-2093.00
Leverage Recommendation: Long positions 5-10x, short positions within 5x
Maximum Single Loss: No more than 1% of total funds



II. Long Position Trading Execution Checklist (Priority Main Strategy)

1. Entry Trigger Conditions (Must Be Met Simultaneously)

- Price retraces to Bollinger Band middle line between 2025-2030
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- 4-hour candlestick closes with a bullish reversal candle (hammer, bullish engulfing, etc.)
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- MACD shows no significant shrinking of the red bars, KDJ dips near 50 for support
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- No increasing volume during retracement, avoid false breakouts

2. Precise Entry Levels

- Entry orders: 50% position at 2030 USDT, remaining 50% at 2025 USDT
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- Stop-loss: 2010 USDT (below 24h low + Bollinger lower band support, strictly enforced, no holding through losses)
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- Take profit in two tiers: First at 2070 USDT, close 50% to lock in profit; second at 2090-2093 USDT, close remaining position
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3. Position Holding and Exit Rules

- Holding period: 1-3 days, avoid long-term holding
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- If price rises without retracing to middle line, abandon chasing longs and wait for next retracement
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- During holding, if MACD red bars shrink rapidly or KDJ forms a death cross overbought, actively take profit and exit, avoid greed for last profits
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- If price breaks above 2093 and stabilizes above the upper band, with MACD forming a second golden cross, add to long positions, move stop-loss up to 2070, target 2150



III. Short Position Trading Execution Checklist (Defensive Auxiliary Strategy)

1. Entry Trigger Conditions (Must Be Met Simultaneously)

- Price hits the upper Bollinger Band at 2080-2090
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- 4-hour candlestick shows topping patterns such as long upper shadow or bearish candle (double top preferred)
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- MACD red bars shrink rapidly, DIF turns downward
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- KDJ forms a death cross in overbought zone above 80, confirming a pullback

2. Precise Entry Levels

- Entry orders: 50% position at 2080 USDT, remaining 50% at 2090 USDT
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- Stop-loss: 2100 USDT (above previous high + upper band resistance, strictly enforced)
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- Take profit in two tiers: First at 2040 USDT, close 50%; second at 2015-2010 USDT, close remaining position
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3. Position Holding and Exit Rules

- Single position size no more than 5% of total funds, used only as a defensive position in sideways markets, no heavy leverage
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- If price breaks above 2093 and stabilizes above the upper band, immediately abandon shorts and switch to longs
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- During holding, if price retraces to middle line near 2026 with MACD golden cross, actively close short positions and exit



IV. Daily Must-Observe Indicators and Signal Thresholds

1. MACD Indicator

- Bullish Signal: DIF above DEA, red bars expanding, DIF turning upward
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- Bearish Signal: DIF crosses below DEA, red bars shrinking or green bars enlarging
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- Warning Threshold: DIF approaching zero line, red bars shrinking, alert for weakening bullish momentum

2. KDJ Indicator

- Bullish Signal: KDJ crosses above 50 with J turning upward
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- Bearish Signal: KDJ forms a death cross above 80 overbought zone, J turning downward
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- Warning Threshold: KDJ near 80 overbought, watch for pullback; near 20 oversold, watch for rebound

3. Bollinger Bands Indicator

- Bullish Signal: Price stabilizes above middle band, running along upper band
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- Bearish Signal: Price breaks below middle band, running along lower band
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- Warning Threshold: Price touches upper or lower band, watch for reversal signals



V. Risk Control Iron Rules (Must Be 100% Enforced)

1. All orders must have stop-loss set in advance; never hold through losses; maximum loss per trade no more than 1% of total funds
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2. Upon reaching first take-profit level, halve the position; remaining position follows with a trailing stop to protect profits
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3. Only judge signals after 4-hour candle closes (Beijing time 0:00, 4:00, 8:00, 12:00, 16:00, 20:00) to avoid false signals during intraday
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4. Major news events (Federal Reserve meetings, ETH upgrades, etc.) are forbidden for opening positions within 1 hour prior to event to prevent gap risks
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5. If price breaks below Bollinger lower band at 1969, with MACD forming a death cross and KDJ crossing below 20, immediately close all long positions and observe market



VI. Market Trend Corresponding Operations

- Sideways Uptrend (Probability 60%): Price stabilizes above middle band, MACD shows continuous red bars, KDJ in 50-70 range, execute low buy orders, hold until 2090 resistance
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- Range-bound Oscillation (Probability 30%): Price fluctuates between 2010-2090, indicators repeatedly cross, strictly buy low and sell high, avoid chasing
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- Breakdown Downtrend (Probability 10%): Price falls below 2010, MACD forms a death cross, KDJ crosses below 20, close all longs and wait for the previous lows at 1930-1950 to consider low buys



Risk Warning

- Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; leverage trading carries high risk; strict control of position size and stop-loss is essential
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- Closely monitor Bitcoin (BTC) correlation, macro policies, and industry news affecting ETH
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- Technical analysis is probabilistic and does not constitute investment advice; trading risks are borne by the trader