BTC 2026.03.31 Market Analysis

BTC tested upward today and closed with a wick; currently, the trend has not yet broken out. The overall view remains unchanged—the area within the blue box, starting from 60,000, is a rebound from the decline between the black line at 97,900 and 60,000. This rebound is now in its final stage. Once the rebound endpoint is identified, BTC could end the rebound at any time and start a new downtrend. In short, 60,000 cannot serve as the bottom for BTC.

Yesterday, it was mentioned that after April 2, a low below 65,000 should not occur; otherwise, BTC might top out at 76,000 and then drop directly. Now, there is little time left, and the market has yet to rally with significant strength. The outlook is not optimistic.

Currently, an additional observation point is set at 69,220. If BTC cannot break through this line this week, it will increase the probability of a top at 76,000.

In the coming days, we will formulate trading strategies based on market movements. If the four-hour candlestick closes below 65,000 after April 2, we will look for opportunities to go short on the right side;

If BTC can hold above 65,000, or if it drops below 65,000 before April 2 but quickly rebounds and breaks above 69,220, there is still a possibility of following the bullish route. Under this scenario, we will look for short-term long and short opportunities, while patiently waiting for four-hour and daily signals indicating a top, to position for a subsequent large short.