3.31 Gold Rebounds After Rising, Continue Short Positions in the 4580-4590 Range

Market Review:

Yesterday, gold opened lower in the early session, maintaining a volatile upward trend. It faced resistance around 4515, then retraced, with the intraday low near 4419, before rebounding. During the European session, the rally accelerated, and before the US market, prices surged to around 4580, then oscillated at high levels. My previous blog suggested shorting in batches between 4570-4480, targeting 4530-4500. After the US market opened, gold faced renewed pressure and declined again, with a low around 4493 in the early morning. I also followed a short strategy during the session, which yielded good results!

In the early session, gold surged strongly, reaching about 4620, but then quickly fell back, forming a typical false breakout above 4600. This pattern indicates heavy selling pressure above, and short-term momentum is difficult to sustain.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, MACD is above the zero line and has formed a golden cross. The red bars expanded then shortened significantly, indicating that while bullish momentum remains relatively strong, the upward strength is waning. A technical correction is needed. RSI rose above 70 into overbought territory and then pulled back, currently around 60-65. Bullish sentiment persists, but the previous overbought pressure has not been fully released. The Bollinger Bands' upper band is opening upward, and prices once strongly ran along the upper band, then slightly retreated, with the upper band gradually flattening. This suggests short-term volatility is narrowing, and the market is likely entering a consolidation phase.

On the 1-hour chart, a large bullish candle surged higher but closed with a long upper shadow. Resistance at 4620 caused a quick retreat, cooling the buying enthusiasm and shifting from a one-sided rally to high-level consolidation. MACD at high levels is turning downward, with red bars turning green and enlarging, indicating bullish momentum weakening and bears gaining strength. Short-term bias is bearish. Watch the 4600 level; only a stable above 4600 can trigger a bullish breakout. Support is around 4530-4500. If there is an unexpected pullback below this level, the earlier rally today will be invalidated, and the market will revert to a weak consolidation trend.

Gold Trading Strategy: Short in batches around 4580-4590 on rebounds, with a stop loss at 4610, targeting 4530-4500.

Disclaimer: The above content is for personal ideas and opinions sharing only and does not constitute trading advice.