I’ve come across Adam Back’s analysis of the current Bitcoin cycles again, and I have to say it’s quite interesting. The CEO of Blockstream has outlined a fairly precise timeline based on historical data from previous cycles.

According to Back, the current cycle started in April 2024 and is expected to conclude around March 2028. Looking back, the previous cycle began in May 2020 and reached $73,700 in March 2024. So, the pattern is quite clear for those who have been following these cycles for a long time.

What stands out is Adam Back’s forecast for the next peak: it should occur between late 2027 and early 2028. Of course, there are other analysts with different views, but Back’s cyclical methodology has proven useful in the past.

One thing Back emphasized is that the bull market will not end in November 2025, just three months after the start of the current cycle. This means that temporary corrections are normal, but we expect new all-time highs before the cycle concludes.

Currently, Bitcoin is testing $67,940, with an all-time high reached at $126,080. Considering where we are in the cycle according to Back’s analysis, we are still in an interesting intermediate phase. It’s not the final peak, but we’re not far from the last upward movements that the cycle should still offer.

Of course, these are just market observations and not investment advice, but Adam Back’s cyclical framework remains one of the most followed by the community to understand where we are positioned in the Bitcoin macro trend.