Trump said: Even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, he is willing to end the war~

Haha, let’s analyze this sentence—America has fought for so long, spent so much money, and now accepts a scenario where the strait remains closed? The choke point for 20% of global oil exports, just left to Iran to hold onto?
There are two interpretations, one true and one false:
The false one: Trump is tired, really wants to call it quits. But businessmen don’t do unprofitable deals. After such a big fight, if he withdraws without gaining control of the Strait of Hormuz, how do you count the costs?
The true one: This is a stance at the negotiation table. First, lower expectations to make Iran think they still have leverage, then get more concessions on key terms—playing hard to get~
But there’s also a third possibility, and it’s the most dangerous: polling has collapsed, the war dividends haven’t materialized, rising oil prices are fueling inflation, and Trump needs a “dignified exit” narrative, even if the Strait of Hormuz is still closed~
Whatever the case, the market’s concern should be the same: the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved → long-term oil price risk premium exists → inflation expectations are hard to bring down → the Federal Reserve remains passive → risk assets continue to be under pressure~
War can end, but the blocked strait won’t open by itself~
If that’s really the case, the petrodollar is in serious jeopardy~
#川普 #Strait of Hormuz #伊朗 #Oil Prices #Geopolitics