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I saw the data from the 36kr article in the chart below.
These temporary miners who switch their mining power to run AI $BTC are no different from retail investors cutting losses at the bottom to buy gold and silver.
They are all chasing gains and selling off on dips, with no independent judgment. Is the US’s shortage of computing power due to a lack of mining machines? No, it’s an energy issue. Nvidia’s new GPUs are about to double their hash rate again.
Mining machines are not the bottleneck; the generators in mining farms are what AI giants are eyeing. It’s well known that tokens in the US are expensive; spending 1 kWh on tokens can earn you the equivalent of 10 kWh in profit. But tokens won’t stay expensive forever. Don’t you envy Minimax leading the total token consumption? The competitors across the Pacific are pricing at only 1/15 of that, and OpenAI and others will eventually have to adjust their prices.
So, the huge profit of earning 10 kWh from 1 kWh of electricity is just a trap, like mining in DeFi. Once all suppliers are in place and have invested heavily in building generators and data centers, they will definitely go crazy with the competition.
The outcome might even be running tokens at a loss. You have to mine somehow; letting outdated equipment sit and depreciate results in zero value, but mining at a loss might still recover some of the initial capital.
Or maybe go back to mining BTC? Mining tokens requires different availability/network latency compared to mining BTC. There are additional investments, such as slicing large models, parallel processing, and pipelines that need ultra-low latency and extremely high throughput between GPUs across multiple servers, requiring special cabling. 2C inference also needs a high-speed network environment.
These may sound trivial, but the costs are not cheap at all. After all, infrastructure in the US is paid for by private funds. If your cluster is in a remote area…
In summary, I estimate that after browsing around, the bottom-cutting $BTC will have to mine again, and the mining cards will be iterated again. The old machines will lose their advantage and won’t be able to mine at the current cost of $BTC $BTC .