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Just came across something interesting – there's this 150-year-old market cycle theory that actually makes sense when you look at historical patterns.
Back in 1875, an economist named Samuel Benner noticed something peculiar about financial markets. He observed that boom and bust cycles seemed to follow a predictable rhythm, and he mapped out when to make money based on three distinct periods repeating roughly every 18-20 years.
Here's the breakdown: First, there are the panic years – think 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019, and looking ahead to 2035, 2053. During these periods, markets tend to collapse and financial crises hit hard. Benner's advice? Stay cautious, don't panic sell, just hold tight.
Then you've got the boom years – the periods when to make money if you know when to exit. Years like 1928, 1935, 1960, 1973, 1989, 2000, 2007, 2016, 2020 saw massive price rallies. Markets recovered with significant upside. If you caught these windows, selling and taking profits made sense.
Finally, there are the recession phases – 1924, 1931, 1942, 1951, 1978, 1985, 1996, 2005, 2012, 2023, 2032. Prices are depressed, economies are sluggish. These are actually the best buying opportunities if you have conviction. Load up on stocks, land, commodities – whatever you believe in – then hold until the next boom arrives.
The pattern is simple: buy when everyone's scared (C), wait for recovery (B), sell when greed peaks (A). Repeat.
Obviously, this isn't gospel. Markets are way more complex now – geopolitics, tech disruption, policy shifts, wars, pandemics – they all mess with the cycles. But as a long-term framework for understanding market psychology and identifying periods when to make money? It's surprisingly relevant. Worth keeping in your mental model.