The chaos in the Middle East is getting more and more intense

Over the weekend, Iran escalated again. The US-Israel coalition bombed power plants and steel factories, and the Houthi forces are not idle either, launching missiles at Israel, effectively opening a second front. Countries like Saudi Arabia are very unhappy about Iran's claim over the Strait of Hormuz, warning that it won't help with a ceasefire.
The US Marine Corps has already arrived, and the island takeover plan is reportedly just waiting for Trump’s approval, with market predictions exceeding 50%.
The religious factions involved are quite interesting: the Houthis and Iran are both Shia, but different branches. They are allies, but Iran can't control them; Hezbollah is different, directly loyal to Iran’s Supreme Leader, essentially a hierarchical relationship. Although Hezbollah is Lebanese, its loyalty is to Iran—Lebanon wants good relations with Israel, but the 1/3 of the population that is Shia feels they represent Iran’s interests. In one country, different groups seek support from transnational big brothers, making consensus very difficult.
Digging deeper, historically, the Middle East has seen the Persian, Arab, and Ottoman empires. Now, each country wants to be the successor and dreams of a “Great Revival.” The stronger ones start to infiltrate their neighbors, and religion is the best tool. Iran is just the latest to emerge.
The good news is Thailand has negotiated with Iran, allowing a ship to pay $2 million in tolls to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The bad news is that the conflict seems to be long-term, which will intensify its impact on the global economy.
In the US, 7 million people have gathered to oppose Trump, mainly protesting the Iran war. Vans also stated that the US military will withdraw in the short term, hinting they might not send ground troops. Trump is familiar with this scene—this is how the Vietnam War ended.
On Friday night, crude oil prices surged sharply, and strangely, gold also rose significantly. The oil price increase is understandable, but why is gold rising too…? Safe-haven sentiment is back. $BTC ‌$XAU ‌