CITIC Futures: Geopolitical Situation Dominates Oil Prices, Calendar Spreads Continue to Strengthen

The rise in oil prices has slowed, and the monthly difference between domestic and international markets continues to increase. U.S. crude oil maintains its seasonal inventory build, but the pace of the inventory build has slowed compared to last week. After the refinery utilization rate has dropped from its peak, the pressure on product oil inventories has weakened. If the low traffic in the Strait of Hormuz continues, it may lead to shipping disruptions in Middle Eastern countries, increasing production pressure and posing an upward risk to oil prices. However, if there are signs of easing in the geopolitical situation or expectations for traffic recovery reignite, oil prices will still be under pressure. We are currently in a period of high volatility driven by geopolitical factors, and price risks are significant. Attention should be paid to the impact of high volatility in freight rates on the price difference between domestic and international markets. (CITIC Futures)