The chaos in the Middle East is getting more intense the more it’s stirred up.

Over the weekend, Iran escalated again. The US-Israel coalition bombed power plants and steel factories, and the Houthi forces are not idle, launching missiles at Israel, effectively opening a second front. Countries like Saudi Arabia are very unhappy about Iran’s claims over the Strait of Hormuz, warning that it’s not conducive to a ceasefire.
US Marine troops are already in place, and the island takeover plan reportedly only awaits Trump’s approval, with market predictions estimating a probability of over 50%.
The religious factions involved are quite interesting: the Houthis and Iran are both Shia, but different branches. They are allies, but Iran can’t control them; Hezbollah is different, directly loyal to Iran’s Supreme Leader, essentially a hierarchical relationship. Although Hezbollah is Lebanese, its loyalty is to Iran—Lebanon wants good relations with Israel, but the 1/3 of the population that is Shia feels they represent Iran’s interests. In one country, different groups seek support from transnational big brothers, making consensus very difficult.
Digging deeper, historically, the Middle East has seen the rise of the Persian, Arab, and Ottoman empires. Now, each country wants to be the successor, dreaming of a “Great Revival.” Those with even slight strength begin to infiltrate their neighbors, and religion is the best tool for that. Iran is just the latest to emerge.
The good news is Thailand has negotiated with Iran, allowing a ship to pass through the Strait of Hormuz with a toll of $2 million. The bad news is that the conflict seems to be long-term, which will intensify its impact on the global economy.
Within the US, 7 million people have gathered to oppose Trump, mainly protesting against the Iran war. Vance also stated that the US military will withdraw in the short term, hinting that ground troops may not be deployed. Trump is familiar with this scene—this is how the Vietnam War ended.
On Friday night, crude oil prices surged sharply, and strangely, gold also rose significantly. The rise in crude oil is understandable, but gold’s increase… safe-haven sentiment has returned. $BTC ‌#震荡行情交易策略 $XAU ‌