March 29th, Next Week Market Analysis

Currently, the daily chart remains in a large-range sideways consolidation. To turn bullish, the daily must break above the midline again. The 4-hour and above timeframes must also break above the midline and even open upward. The 6-hour 256 MA must be above to form a bullish 6-hour trend, with a rough 300-point support level. Use the 2-hour Bollinger Bands for reference on upper and lower bounds.

Key levels: 2030, 1970. Break above one side and act accordingly.

👿 Future Bullish Outlook: a. 4-hour and 6-hour charts must break above the midline; the upper band must open upward. 2030, 2070, 2130/2150.
b. Smaller timeframes below 1 hour must turn bullish and stabilize above the 30 MA to form a bullish arrangement, possibly crossing above the 256 MA to create a small-term bull.
c. Currently, 1-2 hour and higher timeframes need to consolidate; if not, break above the midline directly and aim for the upper band at 2128/2130.
d. For a large rally, the daily and 2-day charts must open upward; targets at 2230-2250, 2300, and the 6-hour 256 MA.
e. Watch whether the 6-hour 5 and 10 MAs turn upward and form a golden cross, and whether they stabilize above the 30 MA. Crossing above the 256 MA will form a new bullish cycle, with at least 200-300 points gain from 2150.

🩸 Resistance levels: 2030/2050, 2070, 2130/2150, 2180/2200, 2250, 2280/2300, 2350/2380, 2400, 2430/2460, 2480/2500, 2550, 2580.

🩸 Breakout signals:
Breakout 1: 2030 🉑 look for 2050, 2070.
Breakout 2: 2070 🉑 look for 2110, 2130/2150 (4-hour upper band plus 6-hour 256 MA).
Breakout 3: 2150 🉑 look for 2170, 2200, 2230/2250, 2280 (daily upper band).
Breakout 4: 2300 🉑 look for 2330, 2350, 2380 (large timeframe opening).
Breakout 5: 2400 🉑 look for 2430 (8-hour 256 MA).
Breakout 6: 2500 🉑 look for 2550, 2580, 2600.

👿👿👿 Future Bearish Outlook:
a. Do not short unless the rebound breaks below the 4-hour 30 MA at 2070/2080.
b. As long as larger timeframes cannot break above the 30 MA and the upper band remains closed, stay short.
c. Observe whether the 2-hour, 3-hour, 4-hour, and 6-hour 5 and 10 MAs cross below the 256 MA; if so, it’s bearish, otherwise look for upward reversal.

Key levels: 1950/1930, 1900, 1850, 1830, 1800, 1780/1750, 1680, 1630, 1550, 1510, 1480, 1450, 1380.

Breakdown signals:
Breakdown 1: 2000 🉑 look for 1980/1950, 1930, 1900.
If the 4-hour and 6-hour lower bands are not broken and daily chart does not turn bearish, avoid shorting; break below triggers a quick short.
Breakdown 2: 1880 🉑 look for 1850/1830, 1800.
If the 2-day lower band opens downward, hold if broken; otherwise, exit.
Breakdown 3: 1800 🉑 look for 1750/1730, 1700.
Breakdown 4: 1700 🉑 look for 1660/1630, 1600.
Breakdown 5: 1600 🉑 look for 1550/1530, 1500, 1480 (5-day lower band).

For both breakouts and breakdowns, it’s recommended to trade with light positions. Heavy positions must include stop-losses. Sometimes, breakouts and breakdowns do not happen immediately and require time.
For ETH, stop-loss is just 10 points; for BTC, 350 points.
Light positions can avoid stop-loss and use position scaling or hedging instead.